2022-2023 College Football Playoff Projections
The goal here is to predict and project. It’s not about what probably should happen considering how the college football season is going, it’s about what probably will happen.
In the short history of the College Football Playoff there has been only one team – 2018 Ohio State – that won at least 12 games and a Power Five championship and was left out for a team that didn’t do that. Notre Dame went 12-0 as an independent and made it in.
Here’s the call – for now.
The prediction is for TCU to lose once in the regular season – maybe at Texas this week – and in the Big 12 Championship leaving the conference without a 12-win or unbeaten champ.
Clemson? It might have a problem in the non-conference rivalry game against South Carolina, but even if it wins out and takes the ACC Championship, the way it lost to Notre Dame this weekend – to go along with a few shaky other performances – might just be enough to leave it out.
That all changes, by the way, if the Tigers obliterate everything in their path. If they roll over, say, an 11-1 North Carolina 38-3 in the ACC Championship, then in. Definitely.
The other big piece of the puzzle will be the Michigan-Ohio State loser, assuming it’s 11-1. The call here will be that the committee will be more impressed by Tennessee overall – after all, it was the No. 1 team in the first round of rankings – and won’t punish it too much for losing at Georgia. It might set up a rematch in the CFP, but that’s not a part of the equation – the committee just wants to get in the four best teams.
Which then leads to the Pac-12 champion. If it’s a 12-1 USC or UCLA, done, in, no questions asked unless TCU goes 13-0 to make things interesting. What if it’s Oregon?
Because the 49-3 annihilation to Georgia came in the first game of the year, and because the Ducks have rolled ever since, for now we’re saying they’d be in.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
4:00 or 8:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Year: Michigan State 31, Pitt 21
Bowl Ties: CFP vs CFP
Bowl Projection: Tennessee vs Georgia
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
4:00 or 8:00, ESPN
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Last Year: Oklahoma State 37, Notre Dame 35
Bowl Ties: CFP vs CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs Oregon
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, January 9, 2023
TBA, ESPN
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Last Year: Georgia 33, Alabama 18
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Winner vs Fiesta Bowl Winner
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs Georgia
Bowl Projections: Week 10 2022-2023
Bowl Projections | Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year’s Six
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