The Boston Red Sox (90-70) and Washington Nationals (65-95) continue a three-game series Saturday with a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Tanner Houck is the projected starting pitcher for Boston. He is 1-5 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 64 IP over 17 games (12 starts).
- Returns to the rotation after three straight appearances as a reliever.
- Owns a 4.50 ERA through 26 IP on the road but has given up 9 earned runs over 10 IP in his last three outings as a visitor.
RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starter for the Nationals. Through 13 games (12 starts), he is 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 across 64 2/3 IP.
- Looks to be coming out of a shaky stretch that saw him allow 16 runs over 13 1/3 IP from Sept. 5-Sept. 17. Allowed 5 runs across 11 1/3 IP in two starts since.
- Is a fly-ball pitcher who has been hurt by home runs but the rookie righty didn’t yield any homers in his last two starts.
Red Sox at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Red Sox 6, Nationals 3
Money line (ML)
Boston won Friday’s opener 4-2 and the Red Sox continue to fight for their playoff lives. They enter Saturday’s action one game behind the New York Yankees and one ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners in a four-way tussle for two AL Wild Card spots.
The Nationals haven’t been playing for anything and have had an abysmal second half. They’re just 16-39 since Aug. 2. Offense has not been the problem for Washington (.762 OPS over those last 55 games), but its pitching staff owns a 5.61 ERA since the All-Star break.
Houck is underrated by his surface line. With a bit of humidity and an outward breeze in the weather forecast, conditions are not favorable for a fly-baller like Gray facing a slugging team like the Red Sox. BACK THE RED SOX (-160).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Figure on Boston having the edge on the mound throughout, from the starter innings to the bullpen and the playoff energy is significant here.
BACK THE RED SOX -1.5 (+100).
Over/Under (O/U)
Too many cross signals in trying to sneak some analytics under the radar and find value. PASS.
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