The Boston Red Sox (7-9) continue their road trip Monday when they go north of the border to start a 4-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays (10-6). First pitch at the Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto leads the season series 2-1 and outscored the Red Sox 11-4 in last week’s games in Boston.
Boston lost the rubber match of a 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday 5-2 . Toronto had its 4-game winning streak snapped Sunday with an 8-7 extra-inning loss at the Houston Astros.
The Blue Jays are 4-0-1 overall in their 5 series this season.
Red Sox at Blue Jays: Projected starters
RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Jose Berrios
Eovaldi (1-0, 3.68 ERA) got a no-decision in Boston’s 2-1 win over Toronto Tuesday, throwing 4 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 6.01 FIP with a .284 expected batting average (xBA), .367 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .450 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.8 K% and 91.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 96 plate appearances (PA).
Berrios (1-0, 6.35 ERA) picked up the win in Wednesday’s 6-1 victory over Boston, going 6 IP with 8 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 3.38 FIP with a .239 xBA, .310 xwOBA, .422 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 89.0 mph EV in 123 PA.
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Blue Jays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 3
Money line
TAKE the BLUE JAYS (-135) because they have an edge in 2 of the 3 most important phases of baseball: Starting pitching and hitting.
The bullpens cancel each other out, but Berrios has stronger pitching peripherals versus the Red Sox (+110) than Eovaldi does against Toronto. That held true when these guys faced Monday’s opponent last week.
Furthermore, Eovaldi has struggled in previous visits to Toronto. Eovaldi is 0-2 in 3 career starts at the Rogers Centre with an 8.04 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 21 H, 6 BB and 18 K.
Also, Toronto’s hitting is raking while Boston’s hasn’t gotten going yet. The Blue Jays rank 10th or better in wRC+, wOBA, hard-hit rate and EV and hit better at home whereas the Red Sox rank 22nd or worse in wRC+, wOBA and WAR, per FanGraphs.
BET 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-135).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN to the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+155) since their lineup is a lot more locked in at the moment than Boston’s and Toronto’s RL has a fat enough payout.
Both bullpens got a lot of work Sunday so I’m not confident Toronto’s relief pitching can cover the RL. Also, 2 of the 3 Red Sox-Blue Jays meetings last week were decided by 1 run.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-130) because of both bullpens’ aforementioned fatigue, both lineups have sluggers, neither starters’ peripherals are impressive and the Over has cashed in 6 of the last 8 Red Sox-Blue Jays meetings in Toronto.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-130) because Toronto’s ML is my favorite bet in this game.
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