The Toronto Blue Jays (48-43) host the Boston Red Sox (57-38) Tuesday at their temporary home of Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y., for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 6-4.
RHP Garrett Richards makes his 19th start for the Red Sox. He is 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA (91 2/3 IP, 50 ER), 1.68 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 11-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K against the Philadelphia Phillies July 9.
- Richards is 1-1 against Toronto with a 5.40 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 22 H, 12 BB and 10 K over three starts this season.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 96 at-bats with a .302/.414/.385 slash line, 20/17 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.
RHP Thomas Hatch makes his first start of the season for the Blue Jays. He was 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across one start and 16 relief appearances last season.
- Hatch was 1-1 in three relief appearances against the Red Sox last season with a stat line of 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
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Red Sox at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Blue Jays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Blue Jays 9, Red Sox 6
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-135) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money is on Toronto while the “public” is backing Boston and Richards hasn’t looked good in his three previous starts against the Blue Jays.
More than 80% of the cash wagered is on Toronto’s money line whereas nearly 90% of the bets placed are on the Red Sox, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s more profitable to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Furthermore, in Richards’ three starts against the Blue Jays this season, his exit velocity has clocked in at 95.6, 95.7 and 94.1 mph. To put that into perspective, his average exit velocity on the season is 91.7 mph and the MLB average is 88.4 mph.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I only “lean” to Toronto outright and don’t want to risk it with the Blue Jays -1.5 (+135).
Also, Boston has the fourth-highest cover rate as a road underdog at 21-6 ATS and Toronto is just 15-16 ATS as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 11.5 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the market has steamed the total up from the 10.5-run opener.
However, Boston is 10-6 O/U when Richards takes the mound, Toronto’s temporary home of Sahlen Field ranks fourth by runs scored based on park factors and the Over cashed in five of the past seven Red Sox-Blue Jays meetings.
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