The Boston Red Sox (16-9) begin a four-game series with the Texas Rangers (10-15) Thursday at Globe Life Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Martin Perez gets his fifth start for the Red Sox. He is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 this season. He played for the Rangers for his first seven MLB seasons.
- Last outing: No-decision in 3 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 6-5 victory over the Seattle Mariners Friday.
- Career vs. Rangers: 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 1.64 WHIP and 4.1 K/9 in 2 starts.
RHP Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Rangers Thursday. He is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 5 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Texas’ 2-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-4 with a 3.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 across 7 starts.
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Red Sox at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rangers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+125) | Rangers +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Rangers 4, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RANGERS (+105) for a half unit only because the Red Sox are 8-1 on the road this season. Texas has the better starter on the rubber and there’s some “reverse line movement”.
After getting tuned up on Opening Day, Gibson has four straight quality starts, including a win over the defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays.
Also, nearly three-fourths of the money is on the Red Sox’s money line, according to pregame.com; however, bookmakers are making the Boston side cheaper despite the one-sided action.
It’s a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper and it’s generally more profitable to “fade” rather than follow the crowd in sports betting.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rangers +1.5 (-155) because I like this game to go Under the total since both starting pitchers are off to a solid start and I’d entertain throwing the Texas money line into a parlay with another similarly priced side.
What’s holding me back is that I’m a cheapskate and don’t want to pay the extra vig in betting against a Boston team that has the second-best run line record as a road team since the start of last season.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 9 (-115) for 1 unit since I have faith in both starters.
Perez has a better hard-hit rate and exit velocity than your average MLB starter and the Rangers struggle against left-handed pitching.
Texas has four lefty bats in its lineup and is bottom-5 as a team in wRC+, OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Also, Gibson has been lights out after his first start this season. Statcast grades Gibson in the 79th percentile of hard-hit rate, 72nd percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of whiff%.
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