The Boston Red Sox (75-57) and red-hot Tampa Bay Rays (82-48) open a four-game series Monday at Tropicana Field (ESPN). First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Rays lead 7-5
The Red Sox took two of three at the Cleveland Indians but blew a late lead to drop Sunday’s finale 7-5. The Sox led 4-0 after five innings and 5-4 before the Indians scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth.
The Rays won at the Baltimore Orioles 12-8 Sunday for a seventh consecutive victory and their 11th win in the last 12 games.
Boston plans to start RHP Nick Pivetta in Monday’s opener vs. the Rays. He is 9-6 with a 4.57 ERA (130 IP, 66 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 25 starts this season.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-6 home loss to Minnesota Twins in 10 innings Wednesday
- Career vs. Rays: 1-1, 1.65 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 5 H, 7 BB, 18 K in three starts, all this season
RHP Luis Patino is projected to start for the Rays. He is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 10 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-4 home win vs. Chicago White Sox Aug. 21
- 2021 as starter: 2-3, 4.82 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 with Rays going 5-5
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in one start, a no-decision at Fenway Park Aug. 10 with Rays winning 8-4
Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Rays -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-180) | Rays -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Rays 6, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
TAMPA BAY (-140) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Red Sox swept the Rays 3-0 in their first head-to-head series of 2021, but Tampa Bay took the next six of the next seven meetings and split the last two.
That BoSox sweep was in Boston in early April. This series is in St. Petersburg, Fla., where the Rays are 41-23, ranking second in the American League.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
ATS records: Red Sox 68-64 | Rays 75-55
BET a HALF UNIT on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+145).
The Rays have the second-best ATS record in the majors (behind the San Francisco Giants’ 79-51) and the best ATS mark in the AL.
They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 10-2 in their last 12. While they’re 5-7 ATS vs. the Red Sox this season, they’re 4-2 in the last six vs. their AL East rivals.
Over/Under (O/U)
O/U records: Red Sox 60-69-3 | Rays 72-53-5
BET OVER 8.5 (-125) to WIN a HALF UNIT.
The Rays have the second-best Over record in the majors (only behind the Minnesota Twins’ 75-48-7).
Plus, the Over is 9-3 in the 12 head-to-head meetings.
The reason for the half-unit play is because the Over is only 2-7 in Pivetta’s last nine starts.
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 23-13 | 10-5 | +9.657 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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