The Boston Red Sox (63-41) and Tampa Bay Rays (61-42) open a hugely important three-game weekend series Friday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Martin Perez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 94 2/3 IP over 20 starts.
Perez made it through 6 frames for the first time in nine starts when he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP against the Yankees his last time out. He has put up a 2.47 ERA in eight road starts with a little help from a 7.0% HR/FB%.
LHP Josh Fleming is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. He is 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 77 1/3 IP over eight starts and eight relief appearances.
Fleming has bounced back and forth between long relief and starting, but his two most recent outings have been starts in which he allowed a total of 10 ER in 8 1/3 IP. In those two starts he recorded a weak 2/3 K/BB with just 3 swinging strikes across 144 pitches.
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Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Rays 4
Money line (ML)
Tampa has the home-field advantage but Boston comes into the game with the second-best road record in the league at 30-19. They rank 7th in runs per game on the road and are facing a pitcher in Fleming who has struggled lately.
The Tampa ‘pen is a little depleted now as well with a few key relievers on the IL and Diego Castillo now in Seattle. Look for the RED SOX (+110) to come out on top.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Red Sox have won four of six against the Rays this season, and one of the two losses was by a single run. Perez isn’t a great pitcher but has been able to avoid disaster, allowing more than 3 ER just three times all year. Even if they fall short they should keep it close so take the RED SOX +1.5 (-165).
Over/Under (O/U)
The under has hit in seven of the last eight games for Boston and four of the last five for Tampa Bay. However, with two mediocre starting pitchers on the mound, it’s risky to gamble on those trends continuing so PASS on the total.
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