The Boston Red Sox (81-64) visit the Seattle Mariners (77-66) Monday to start a three-game set at T-Mobile Park with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Red Sox. He is 11-8 with a 5.15 ERA (136 1/3 IP, 78 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 27 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 12-7, with 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 3 K Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Rodriguez beat Seattle April 25, 5-3, with a stat line of 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster (59 PA): 2.21 FIP with a .232 batting average, .290 wOBA, .307 expected slugging percentage, 30.5 K% and 85.9 mph exit velocity.
RHP Logan Gilbert is on the hill for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.10 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 20 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in Seattle’s 5-4 loss at the Houston Astros Tuesday with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 home stats: 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 7.9 K/BB through 11 starts.
Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Mariners 4, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (+102) for 1 unit because I give them a slight edge in the pitching department even though Gilbert is hitting a bit of a rookie wall and there’s “reverse line movement” headed in Seattle’s direction.
Around 70% of the cash wagered is on the Red Sox, according to Pregame.com, but Boston’s money line has gotten cheaper since the betting market opened and it’s always a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Furthermore, Seattle’s bullpen has been far more reliable than Boston’s since the All-Star break. Red Sox relievers’ ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher than the Mariners’ over that span and Boston’s bullpen ranks 20th or worse in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in the second half.
On top of that, the Mariners are 30-25 against lefty starters and are slightly more productive at the plate against left-handed pitching.
Seattle’s lineup ranks around the same as Boston’s in several advanced hitting metrics over the past two weeks; however, the Mariners have a much better BB/K and the Red Sox have a .332 BABIP while Seattle’s lineup has a .253 BABIP.
Lastly, Seattle is always a live dog at home as the Mariners have the most wins as home underdogs and the second-best winning percentage in that spot this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mariners +1.5 (-165) since they have the third-best cover rate as home underdogs at 31-13 ATS and the Red Sox are just 9-18 ATS as road favorites.
While Seattle’s run line is a little pricier than I’d like it to be, I’d entertain throwing it into a parlay with perhaps the New York Mets’ run line for a plus-money payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer Seattle’s money line more than the total in this spot.
However, there is a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money being on the Under whereas the public money is on the Over despite these teams having a combined 27-18 O/U record when these starters are on the mound. Plus, Seattle’s home ballpark has the fourth-lowest runs scored by park factors and is a notoriously pitcher-friendly park.
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