The Boston Red Sox (52-31) and Oakland Athletics (48-36) continue their three-game series Saturday at Oakland Coliseum with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the first game of the series Friday 3-2 in extra innings thanks to a CF Enrique Hernandez RBI single in the top of the 10th inning.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Garrett Richards takes the mound for the Red Sox. Richards is 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 0 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 6-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals Monday.
- Richards picked up a win earlier this season vs. the Athletics (May 13) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K in an 8-1 victory.
- vs. Athletics on the current roster: 160 at-bats with a .244/.295/.350 slash line, 34/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.
LHP Cole Irvin makes his 17th start for the Athletics. Irvin is 6-7 with a 3.64 ERA (94 IP, 38 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 6-2, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K at the San Francisco Giants Sunday.
- Career vs. the Red Sox: 2 scoreless relief innings with 1 H, 1 BB and 0 K in 1 appearance (2019).
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Red Sox at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:33 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Athletics -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Athletics -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Athletics 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RED SOX (+120) for a half unit only because there’s been heavy line movement in Oakland’s direction as the Athletics opened up as -113 favorites, but the market has bet them up to the current number.
Why I’m fading the line movement in this spot is because Boston has a 17-11 record vs. left-handed starters and is one of the most productive lineups against left-handed pitching whereas Oakland is just 26-24 vs. righty starters.
The Red Sox lineup ranks in the top 7 of both wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching.
I have faith the Red Sox batters will put up some runs on Irvin because his stuff (velocity and movement pitch data) is similar to teammate starting LHP Sean Manaea, according to Statcast.
In Garrett’s win over Oakland earlier this season, Manaea started for the A’s and the Red Sox chased him after just two innings with seven earned runs on 10 hits, two home runs and just two strikeouts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the RED SOX +1.5 (-160) for a half unit since Boston has the second-highest cover rate as a road underdog this season (18-4 ATS) and Oakland is only 17-19 ATS as a home favorite.
More importantly, the Red Sox have a much better bullpen than Oakland. Boston’s bullpen is fifth in WAR, sixth in xFIP and eighth in K-BB% while the Athletics relievers rank in the bottom 10 in each of those categories.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+100) for a half unit because the Over is 4-0-1 in Garrett’s five prior starts (Boston is 8-6 O/U this season when Garrett starts) and the Over is 5-0 in Oakland’s last five games against a right-handed starter.
However, it’s only a “lean” because the market is barreling into the Over and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting.
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