The New York Yankees (6-1) look to complete a three-game sweep of the rival Boston Red Sox (3-6) in Sunday night’s national ESPN game at Yankee Stadium – first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. We analyze the Red Sox-Yankees MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Saturday: RF Aaron Judge homered for a fourth consecutive game the first time in his career and 3B Gio Urshela hit his first MLB grand slam as the Yankees won a fifth in a row with a 5-2 victory. The Red Sox are on a two-game skid.
Red Sox at Yankees: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Austin Brice vs. LHP James Paxton
Brice will take the hill in an “opener” role, making his first career start. He debuted in the majors in 2016, making 110 relief appearances for three teams.
- 2020: 0-0, 7.71 ERA (4 ER, 4 2/3 IP) in four games, including one scoreless inning – no hits and no walks – vs. the Yankees
- 2019 (Miami Marlins): 1-0, 3.43 ERA (17 ER, 44 2/3 IP) in 36 games
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (0 ER, 1 2/3 IP) in two games
Paxton hopes to fare better than his season debut when he allowed three runs on five hits and a walk in one-plus innings of a 9-2 loss to the Washington Nationals July 25. The veteran right-hander, who had back surgery in February, didn’t make it out of the second inning after yielding three straight singles, a two-run double and a walk.
- 2019: 15-6, 3.82 ERA in 29 starts
- 2019 vs. Red Sox: 3-1, 3.28 ERA (9 ER, 23 2/3 IP) in four starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 5-1, 2.88 ERA (16 ER, 50 IP) in eight starts
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Red Sox at Yankees: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Red Sox
- RP Darwinzon Hernandez (COVID-19) out
- 1B Mitch Moreland (leg) questionable
- RP Josh Taylor (COVID-19) out
- 2B Dustin Pedroia (knee) out
Yankees
- RP Luis Cessa (COVID-19) out
- RP Aroldis Chapman (COVID-19 recovery) cleared, but doubtful
- RP Tommy Kahnle (forearm) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Red Sox at Yankees: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Yankees 8, Red Sox 4
Moneyline (ML)
I’m taking a PASS. The Yankees (-209) are just too chalky of a favorite. The Red Sox (+185) are tempting, nearly offering a 2-to-1 payoff, but I’m going to focus on the New York run line.
New to sports betting? A winning $20.90 Yankees bet only returns a profit of $10. A winning $10 bet on the Red Sox returns $18.50.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The YANKEES (-1.5, -110) are the play vs. the Red Sox (+1.5, -110). New York is 5-2 vs. the RL so far this season; Boston is 3-6. Plus, with the Red Sox going the “opener” role, this could get ugly.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 10 (-110) is worth a small play. While both teams have played more Under games in this early season – New York is 3-4 O/U and Boston is 2-6-1 – I have no faith in Paxton or the Red Sox situation.
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| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 10-7 |
| 2020 overall record | 44-31-1 |
| Strongest plays | 25-13 |
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