The Miami Marlins (25-22) and Boston Red Sox (18-32) play the third game of a three-game set Thursday at Marlins Park at 1:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Red Sox-Marlins MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1.
Red Sox at Marlins: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Jose Urena
Eovaldi: 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 37 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision with 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 K and 0 BB in a 5-4 Red Sox loss at the Tampa Bay Rays (Sept. 12).
Urena: 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 3.9 K/8 and 6.8 BB/9 over 9 1/3 IP in 2 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 12-6, with 4 1/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 K and 4 BB against the Philadelphia Phillies (Sept. 12).
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Red Sox at Marlins: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Red Sox
- OF Andrew Benintendi (ribs) out
Marlins
- C Jorge Alfaro (head) questionable
- SS Jon Berti (finger) out
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 2B Logan Forsythe (oblique) out
- OF Magneuris Sierra (hamstring) out
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Red Sox at Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox (+100) were projected for a down year after jettisoning OF Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers and with SP Chris Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery, but it’s still a surprise Boston has the second-worst record in the majors. Boston is playing better recently (5-5 over its last 10 games) and won the first game of this series.
The MARLINS (-112) are a bit of a surprise and are in the thick of the NL playoff chase. Miami has a 20-12 record versus righties plus Eovaldi (a right-handed pitcher) has struggled away from Fenway Park.
Eovaldi has a 5.68 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road compared to 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home. On average, Eovaldi is striking out two fewer hitters and walking one more hitter per nine innings as a visitor. Also, Miami’s price is a little cheap because Boston is a very public team and the Marlins aren’t even popular in Miami.
BACK MARLINS (-112). New to sports betting? A $112 bet on the Marlins (-112) pays a $100 profit if Miami beats Boston.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Marlins +1.5 (-175) have the third-best run line record in the majors (29-18) and the Red Sox -1.5 (+145) have a bad 22-28 RL record.
That being said, Miami’s Pythagorean win total is 21-25, i.e. its record is better than the underlying stats, plus the Marlins pitching staff and lineup are below-average. PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’d place a smaller wager on the OVER 9 (-110) since Miami’s Over/Under record is 26-20-1 and Boston has the worst pitching staff in MLB. It’s only a lean for me because bookmakers have adjusted well to Boston’s weaknesses and the Red Sox are 23-24-3 O/U this year.
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