The Boston Red Sox (63-45) will look to put an end to their five-game losing skid when they take on the Detroit Tigers (52-57) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Tigers with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (7-6, 5.60 ERA) will be making his 21st start of the year. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 99 2/3 IP.
- Rodriguez’s skills suggest he should have a much lower ERA. He has been hurt by a .369 BABIP that is well above his .308 career mark, as well as by a 64.0% LOB% (73.7% career).
- Has made 13 road starts on the season where he has posted a 5.21 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over 65 2/3 IP.
Casey Mize (6-5, 3.41 ERA) will be making his 21st start of the year as well. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 111 IP.
- The Tigers tapped the brakes on Mize’s workload in July, holding him to 4 IP or less and fewer than 60 pitches in three consecutive starts. He got back up to 7 IP in his last start and didn’t allow any runs, although he whiffed just 2 batters.
- He has a strong 3.15 ERA with just 4 HR allowed in 45 2/3 IP across nine home starts.
Red Sox at Tigers, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+105) | Tigers +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Red Sox 5, Tigers 4
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox come into the game in the midst of their longest losing skid of the season. They still carry a 30-23 road record, which is tied for the 5th best mark in the league.
The Tigers have won 12 of 18 games since the All-Star break and 12 of their last 14 at home dating back to early July.
This is a pretty even matchup that could go either way. A small play on the Tigers is tempting, but the call here is to PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Rodriguez has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. He’s walking fewer batters than ever before while striking them out at the highest rate of his career. However, while he is due for some better fortune he’s not a great bet to completely shut down the Detroit bats.
Mize on the other hand has been a little lucky to record a 3.41 ERA to this point. However, he has pitched well at home and kept the ball in the park, and he should be able to keep this game close.
Side with the TIGERS +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under has hit in each of Boston’s last five games against a right-handed starter and is 7-1 in Detroit’s last eight contests against a left-hander.
Neither offense is likely to have a huge day in this one, so look for these trends to continue and take UNDER 9.5 (-130)
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