The Boston Red Sox (41-31) meet the Cleveland Guardians (36-31) for their 3-game series finale at Progressive Field with Sunday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston is on a 6-game winning streak, which includes 2 games of this set. The Red Sox have outscored the Guardians 10-5 in their 1st series of the season.
Cleveland has dropped 3 consecutive games, but is 13-7 overall in the last 20 games and is just 1 game back of the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead.
Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
LHP Rich Hill vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Hill is 3-4 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 60 IP in 13 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-4 at home Tuesday vs. the Detroit Tigers with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 road splits: 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2 HR and 6.7 K/9 in 7 starts.
Civale is 2-3 with a 7.25 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 36 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 6-5 win at the Minnesota Twins Tuesday with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA (16 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.
Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+135) | Guardians +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Guardians 3
Money line
BET a half-unit on the RED SOX (-115) because they have edges in the starting and hitting matchups and there could be value in fading a gamblers’ fallacy that “Boston won’t sweep a winning Guardians (-105) team.”
Hill grades better than Civale in several advanced pitching stats including hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected ERA and expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash rate (per Statcast).
Also, Cleveland’s lineup ranks last vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.277), 20th in BB/K rate (0.37) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (28.4%), according to FanGraphs.
BET only a half-unit on the RED SOX (-115) because I’m higher on Civale’s stuff than Hill and Cleveland has a much better bullpen than Boston.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The payout for the Red Sox -1.5 (+135) isn’t big enough especially with my confidence level for Boston. Also, the Guardians +1.5 (-170) are 9-8 RL as home underdogs and the Red Sox are just 7-6 RL as road favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-122).
A vast majority of the market is hammering the Over 9.5 (-102) because Hill is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter playing in the final years of his career and Civale is having a terrible 2022.
However, I’d rather fade this lopsided betting market, if anything, since the Red Sox are 3-6 O/U when Hill gets the nod and the Guardians are awful vs. left-handed pitching.
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