Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (80-60) host the Boston Red Sox (80-62) Friday for the opener of a three-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Tanner Houck gets the nod for the White Sox. Houck is 0-3 with a 3.26 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 10 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Boston’s 4-3 win over the Cleveland Indians Saturday with a stat line of 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
  • Houck lost April 18 to the White Sox 3-2 with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. White Sox on the current roster (10 PA): .200 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .552 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 10.0 K% and 81.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Carlos Rodon is Chicago’s projected starter. Rodon is 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 21 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-3, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K against the Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 1.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: .377 BA, .506 wOBA, .581 xSLG, 15.5 K% and 91.4 mph EV in 58 PA.

Red Sox at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | White Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | White Sox -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

White Sox 6, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the WHITE SOX (-160) for a half unit only because Chicago outright is on the fringe of my price range in this spot and I wouldn’t hate putting it into a parlay with another favorite for a plus-money payout.

The White Sox are 12 games above-.500 against righty starters and 22 games above-.500 at home, while the Red Sox are just 4-13 overall as road underdogs against a left-handed starter and just 36-33 on the road.

I’m willing to say the hitting matchup is a wash even though I think the White Sox have more talent in their lineup, but Chicago has a major edge in the pitching department.

Rodon lingered in the AL Cy Young race this year and Tipico has Rodon priced with the fifth-best odds (+1500) to win the award. Also, Chicago’s bullpen has been amazing recently while Boston’s has been mediocre. White Sox relievers rank atop the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% over the last 30 days, whereas the Red Sox is below-average in each metric

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the White Sox -1.5 (+125) is below my buy price of +150 in this spot because the Red Sox have covered two-thirds of their contests as road underdogs (28-14 ATS).

Another reason why I don’t like Chicago’s value here is that both teams have been equally mediocre over the past 10 and 30 games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the White Sox’s money line than the total in this game.

However, each team has played more to the Under in their respective location-based splits, Chicago is 7-13-1 O/U in Rodon’s 21 starts and Boston is 3-7 O/U in games Houck starts.

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