The Boston Celtics (44-22) face the Miami Heat (42-25) Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Celtics-Heat NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Celtics vs. Heat: Key injuries
Heat
- PF Meyers Leonard (ankle) questionable
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Celtics vs. Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Celtics 114, Heat 107
Moneyline (ML)
The Celtics (-167) have split the first two games of their restart, losing to the Milwaukee Bucks, 119-112, then beating the Portland Trail Blazers, 128-124. Boston was fortunate to escape with a win in their game against Portland after blowing a 24-point lead.
The Heat (+135) are looking to bounce back after a 107-103 loss to the Toronto Raptors Monday. Miami looked impressive in its first game of the restart, trampling the Denver Nuggets, 125-105.
Boston has won and covered its three last games versus Miami. The Celtics weren’t fully healthy in either game against the Heat this season. They were without F Gordon Hayward in their 112-93 win on Dec. 9 and without F Jayson Tatum in their 109-101 victory on Jan. 28.
I like Celtics in this spot but I am PASSING ON THE MONEYLINE because of poor value. Obviously, there’s a world where the Heat win, but I cannot talk myself into Miami winning this game 43% of the time (their calculated win probability based on the moneyline).
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Both teams are having a great season and performing above expectations against the betting market, but Boston is just slightly better in a lot of key trends.
The CELTICS -3.5 (-110) have a 38-24-4 against the spread record on the season (second-best in the NBA). The Heat are 34-31-2 ATS. Boston has a stronger ATS record (20-10-1) against winning teams than Miami (13-12-1).
The Heat +3.5 (-110) are 9-12-1 ATS as an underdog this season. They are also 3-6-2 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Miami is a much stronger home ATS team (20-11-1) then they are away from home (13-19-1).
In this case, the neutral location is a much bigger problem for the Heat than it is for the Celtics. I LOVE THE CELTICS -3.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
My handicap is so close to the projected total that I don’t see an edge in betting it either way. It opened at 223.5 but now sits at 219.5 because the market is betting it down. Since the market is confident in the Under, that’s where I lean. Also, the Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The reason why I am PASSING ON THE TOTAL is that both offenses are elite and if one gets hot early this could easily turn into a shootout. Miami is No. 1 in the NBA in three-point percentage and free-throw attempt rate. Boston is actually rated higher in offensive efficiency.
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