The Boston Celtics (16-16) head to the Cream City for a Christmas day game against the Milwaukee Bucks (21-13) at the Fiserv Forum. The tip-off is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Boston has alternated between winning and losing over the last six games with the most recent being a 111-101 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 6.5-point home favorites.
The Celtics are 3-3 straight-up (SU), 3-2-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over the past two weeks with the 12th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (plus-0.3 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Milwaukee has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets 128-106 Wednesday and at the Dallas Mavericks 102-95 Thursday.
The Bucks are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS and 3-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the 11th-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.
Boston won and covered its first two meetings of the season with Milwaukee, and either side of the total cashed in those two contests. The most recent was a Celtics’ 117-103 beatdown (Dec. 13) when both teams were at full health.
Celtics at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Bucks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +6.5 (-107) | Bucks -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Celtics at Bucks key injuries
Celtics
- C Enes Kanter Freedom (health and safety protocols) out
- C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) questionable
- SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) questionable
- PF Grant Williams (health and safety protocols) questionable
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (health and safety protocols) probable
- PF Bobby Portis (health and safety protocols) questionable
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Celtics at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 115, Bucks 109
Money line
Milwaukee received positive news Christmas Eve when it was announced Giannis would be a game-time decision after clearing the health and safety protocols.
Boston has played much better this season against top-10 teams in net rating. For instance, the Celtics are seventh in non-garbage time net rating (minus-1.3 points per 100 possessions) and 10th in spread differential (minus-0.5 ATS margin) vs. teams top-10 in efficiency differential (CTG).
Whereas the Bucks are 22nd in non-garbage time net rating (minus-6.8 points per 100 possessions) and the second-worst in spread differential (minus-7.5 ATS margin), per CTG.
Also, this could be the one day on the whole NBA calendar that’s popular for money line parlays. So I could see the sportsbooks needing the Celtics to pull off an upset to bust a bunch of money line parlays, which include the Bucks and other big Christmas day favorites.
In fact, according to the Yahoo! Sports app, 92% of the cash is on Milwaukee’s money line at the time of publishing. I’d guess that most of the people betting the Bucks (-205) are doing so with it parlayed with another favorite.
Slight “LEAN” to the CELTICS (+230) because I like Boston plus the points and want to “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the CELTICS +6.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of Boston’s money line.
But, I’d wait closer till tip-off before making the wager. because if Giannis gets ruled in then Milwaukee could easily balloon up to a 7-point favorite. Obviously, that’s a tough ask on Christmas day but that’s the nature of the business.
Plus the Celtics are one of the few teams equipped to face the Bucks’ double-headed wing monster in Giannis and Khris Middleton. Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a legit one-two punch that has the talent to neutralize Giannis and Middleton.
Furthermore, both teams play a high frequency of isolation offense: Boston runs the second-most action out of isolation and Milwaukee runs the fourth-most. But, the Celtics rank higher in offensive efficiency out of isolation plays and the Bucks have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency vs. iso-ball.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer the Boston side more than the total in this game.
However, the first Celtics-Bucks meeting this season snapped a six-game streak of Overs played between these two teams. And the total only went Under by 3 points.
Lastly, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, vastly more money has been wagered on the Under, which has caused the total to be lowered from the 234.5-point opening total. My instinct is to fade such a large line swing.
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