The 2022 NBA Finals start Thursday when the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics for Game 1. Tip-off at Chase Center is set for 9 p.m. ET and the game airs on ABC. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Boston is appearing in its first NBA Finals since 2010 and the first of the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era. The Celtics eked past the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals with a thrilling 100-96 win in Game 7.
This is Golden State’s 6th NBA Finals appearance in the last 8 seasons and the Warriors are hoping to win their 4th NBA title in the Steph Curry-Klay Thompson-Draymond Green era under coach Steve Kerr. Golden State beat the Dallas Mavericks in a “gentleman’s sweep” (4-1) in the Western Conference Finals.
The road team won both Celtics-Warriors meetings this season but Boston was 1-0-1 against the spread (ATS) and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).
The Celtics are the only team with a winning record against the Warriors in Kerr’s 8-year stint as Golden State’s coach. Boston is 9-7 straight up (SU) and 12-3-1 ATS vs. Golden State since 2014-15.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals betting preview
Celtics at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +4.5 (-120) | Warriors -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Celtics at Warriors key injuries
Celtics
- PF Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (back) questionable
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) questionable
- SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
[tipico]
Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 113, Celtics 105
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Warriors (-175) because most of the market is betting Golden State’s spread so I’m nervous Game 1’s final margin could be inside the number.
However, I expect the Warriors to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy at the end of this series because they get much better looks than the Celtics. Golden State has the 2nd-highest volume of layups for these playoffs whereas Boston has the 2nd-highest 3-point attempt rate.
The Celtics have settled for too many long, contested 2-pointers or 3-pointers while the Warriors exhaust all their options in possessions and get everyone on the floor involved.
If Golden State’s ML falls to -150 or lower then I’d take that instead of the Warriors laying points but PASS at this price.
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Against the spread
BET 0.75 units on the WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) since we are getting to the party a little late. Golden State opened as 3.5-point favorites but the market has steamed it up to the current number.
However, the Warriors have performed really well on extended rest, partially due to injury issues throughout the season and because extra time off gives Golden State’s terrific coaching staff more time to prep.
Golden State is 4-0 SU and ATS playing on 4 or more days of rest with a plus-21.3 margin of victory and plus-16.8 ATS margin. The Warriors are also 27-18-2 ATS as home favorites (plus-2.8 ATS margin) and 17-7-1 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Something to consider: Since current NBA games go through dramatic swings due to the high volume of 3-point attempts, I’d be looking for in-game betting opportunities.
If Boston goes up double digits in the first quarter then I’d take a stab at Golden State’s ML. But, if the Warriors get up big then there could be a chance to “middle” by betting the Celtics plus points on an adjusted live spread.
BET the WARRIORS -4.5 (-105).
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 213.5 (-112) since we are getting late to the party on the total as well. Celtics-Warriors opened with a 210.5-point total but has been bet up to the current number.
There’s more value in the Over both teams can get clumsy with ball security and turnovers could lead to easy scoring chances for either team. There’s also crazy firepower on both benches.
That said, both teams are elite defensively and the Under has cashed in 7 consecutive Celtics-Warriors meetings in Golden State.
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