The Boston Celtics (27-26) drop by the Ball Arena Sunday for an afternoon game (3 p.m. ET) with the host Denver Nuggets (34-18). Below, we analyze the Celtics-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Boston wrapped up a seven-game homestand with back-to-back wins and victories in four of its past five games. During the homestand, the Celtics were 4-3 straight up (SU) but just 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
Denver has won eight straight and nine of 10 (8-2 ATS) – including two straight against the San Antonio Spurs entering Sunday.
The Nuggets haven’t lost since acquiring PF Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline (March. 28) and have the fourth-best net rating, top rebounding rate and the second-highest effective field goal shooting.
The Celtics beat the Nuggets 113-99 as 2-point home favorites in their first meeting this season Feb. 16.
Celtics at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Nuggets -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Celtics +7 (-110) | Nuggets -7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Celtics at Nuggets: Key injuries
Celtics
- SF Jayson Tatum (illness) questionable
- SF Jaylen Brown (knee) questionable
Nuggets
- PF Jamal Murray (knee) questionable
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Celtics at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 114, Celtics 106
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I like Denver to win this game because the Nuggets (-275) is too steep of a price against a Boston team that’s starting to play better as the season progresses and has won two straight in the head-to-head series.
Furthermore, I think there’s a better than 50% chance Tatum misses today’s game as he’s on the injury report with a non-COVID illness.
Tatum missed time with COVID earlier this season and discussed the difficulty he had returning to game shape. My hunch is that Boston takes it easy with him and sits Tatum for this non-conference matchup.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Denver is fourth in offensive rating and, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Boston is 6-12 SU with minus-3.9 points per 100 possessions differential and the 21st-ranked ATS margin vs. top-10 offenses.
Also, the NUGGETS -7 (-110) score the seventh-most second-chance points per game, the Celtics are 23rd in second-chance points allowed per game, and Denver’s edge in this area should be more noticeable with Gordon on the roster.
BET NUGGETS -7 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 223.5 (-110) because both teams play at a bottom-10 pace in the league, and the Under has cashed in four straight Celtics-Nuggets meetings.
Plus the Celtics don’t really attack the basket, which is where the Nuggets struggle on defense.
Denver has the worst defensive field goal shooting within five feet of the basket, but Boston attempts the eighth-fewest shots within five feet of the basket.
Lastly, both teams take a majority of their shots in the midrange, but Boston is 23rd in defensive mid-range field goal shooting, (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
BET UNDER 223.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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