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Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid square off at Wembley Stadium in London for the UEFA Champions League Final Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
These teams haven’t met since 2017, and Real Madrid won both matchups in 2017, beating Dortmund 3-2 and 3-1 in the Champions League.
With the season over, Real is the official winner of La Liga, the top league in Spain. They ended with a +61 goal differential, having tallied 87 and allowed 26. In Champions League play, Real Madrid beat Bayern Munich 2-1 at home following a 2-2 road draw to advance. They also beat Man City in the quarterfinals, drawing back-to-back matches and winning on the road in penalty kicks. Madrid won all 6 Champions League group stage games and beat RB Leipzig a combined 2-1 in the Round of 16.
Dortmund finished 5th in the Bundesliga, the top league in Germany, ending with a +25 goal differential, averaging 2.00 goals per game while allowing 1.26 per game. They ended the year strong, going 11-1-4 throughout all competitions. In the Champions League, Dortmund finished the group stage 3-2-1 before beating PSV 3-1 in the Round of 16 and then edging Athletico Madrid 5-4 in the quarterfinals. Dortmund’s most impressive performance was 2 back-to-back 1-0 wins over PSG in the semifinals.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:16 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Borussia Dortmund +420 (bet $100 to win $420) | Real Madrid -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Draw +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -130 | U: +108)
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions
Prediction
Borussia Dortmund 1, Real Madrid 1 (Real Madrid wins in overtime)
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE DRAW (+310).
Madrid has drawn 4 of their last 5 Champions League matches. Simply put, they play to the level of their competition. In those 5 matches, they drew RB Leipzig at home, City away and at home and Bayern Munich on the road. While City and Munich are far away better teams than Leipzig, that draw is most concerning as Madrid should’ve been able to blow them out at home, but rather played to their level and even had fewer expected goals.
For Dortmund, while they have won 3 straight Champions League matches, 2 of those ended within 0.4 expected goals, and in the 3rd they had 3.2 fewer expected goals. They are going to be the inferior side, and the moneyline suggests that as well. However, they are good enough to keep things close, and for this value, back DRAW (+310).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+108).
While older Champions League Final games did have more scoring, over the past half a decade, the scoring has been limited. All 5 of those games went under 2.5 goals and the last 4 have resulted in a 1-0 finish. While on paper both teams have dynamic attacks, at this level of play and the unfamiliarity of the teams, scoring isn’t easy.
Madrid has gone Under this total in 3 of 6 Champions League games since the group stage. Dortmund has gone Under it in 4 of their last 6 Champions League matches despite playing an ultra-talented PSG attack. With that in mind, back UNDER 2.5 (+108).
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