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Borussia Dortmund welcomes PSG to Signal Iduna Park Wednesday for the 1st leg of their UEFA Champions League semifinal. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
PSG sits 12 points ahead of AS Monaco in Ligue 1 play — the top league in France. PSG beat Barcelona 4-1 on the road in the 2nd leg of its quarterfinal matchup April 16, and won 6-4 on aggregate. PSG beat Real Sociedad a combined 4-1 through 2 legs of the Round of 16 following a disappointing 2-2-2 group-stage effort. It finished 2nd in a group led by Dortmund, so these teams are familiar with each other.
Dortmund was 3-2-1 in the group stage, ending with 7 goals for and 4 against. It beat Atletico Madrid a combined 5-4, winning 4-2 at home in the 2nd leg April 16. Dortmund beat PSV 3-1 in the Round of 16. Dortmund has had a disappointing season in league play, sitting 5th in the Bundesliga despite a +20 goal differential. F Niclas Fullkrug, who has 12 goals and 8 asssists in 28 league matches, is Dortmund’s top attacking threat.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Borussia Dortmund +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | PSG +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Draw +260
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: +126 | U: -154)
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Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG picks and predictions
Prediction
PSG 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
Moneyline (ML)
BET PSG (+145).
In 2 group-stage matches against Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain won 2-0 at home (Sept. 19, 2023) and drew 1-1 on the road (Dec. 13, 2023).
Dortmund ended with 1.4 fewer expected goals at home and 1.7 fewer on the road. Dortmund has had as many or fewer expected goals in all 4 games following the group stage. It has gotten the results but hasn’t played like an elite side, and PSG should be able to expose that.
PSG is coming off an impressive 4-1 road win over Barcelona, which sits 2nd in La Liga. PSG has the firepower in F Kylian Mbappe (26 goals, 7 assists in 28 matches) to get the job done and has proven it can win big games on the road.
BACK PSG (+145).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 3.5 (-154).
While both teams netted 4 goals in their last respective Champions League match, neither has consistently scored throughout the league this season. Dortmund tallied 7 goals in 6 group-stage matches and then 4 goals in its first 3 games following. It has only scored 2 or more in 4 of 10 games.
PSG has gone Under this total in 6 of its last 8 Champions League matches, having tallied more than 2 in just 2 of 10 matches. It has allowed fewer than 1.5 expected goals in every Champions League match this season.
Expect fewer goals, especially given how familiar the teams are with each other and how the 2 group-stage games were played. TAKE UNDER 3.5 (-154).
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