The NCAA Tournament bubble doesn’t always flow in the same direction every February and March. In some years, the bubble shrinks quickly due to teams winning big bubble games left and right. Spots get snapped up, and when we get to Selection Sunday, only one at-large bid — maybe two — is up for grabs.
This year, it’s much more fluid, at least to this point. Teams aren’t playing their way into the field. Most bubble teams are losing, which leaves several spots unclaimed in the back end of the bracket. The teams which are the projected “Last Four In” are there not because they have done good work, but because the teams below them (the “First Four Out”) are losing and leaving the door open.
So it is with USC and other bubble teams. The Trojans’ position has improved over the last week not because they did anything noteworthy, but because teams next to them have lost.
New Mexico is the latest team to give USC a bubble opening. The Lobos, who have not played well in recent weeks, blew a 13-point lead in an 82-77 loss at Boise State on Wednesday night. This was a big missed opportunity for the Lobos to gain ground on USC and other bubble teams. New Mexico is clearly below USC on the seed list right now. The Lobos are running out of chances to improve their portfolio.
UNM hosts San Diego State this coming Saturday. We can safely say that if the Lobos lose that game, they would need to win their next five games to have any chance of getting an at-large bid.
Trojan fans will be Aztec fans this coming Saturday.
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