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The Boise State Broncos (21-9, 12-5 Mountain West) and San Diego State Aztecs (22-8, 11-6) clash in a showdown between 20-win squads in an MWC regular-season finale Friday. Tip time at Viejas Arena will be at 10 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Boise State vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Boise State had a 5-game win streak snapped in a 76-66 upset Tuesday at home to Nevada. The Broncos, who were 5.5-point favorites, were doubled up on 3-pointers (12-6) and had 7 more turnovers in the loss. The Broncos defense ranks 3rd in the MWC in points allowed at 66.9 points per game, but they have surrendered 155 points over its last 2 contests — a 77.5-point average.
San Diego State, ranked No. 19 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, is also coming off a Tuesday loss. The favored-by-3 Aztecs lost 62-58 at UNLV, resulting in SDSU not covering the spread for the 3rd time in its last 4 games.
In their 1st regular-season meeting, the Broncos won at home, nipping the Aztecs 67-66 Jan. 20. The result was a push — Boise State was a 1-point favorite — and Under (137) cashed.
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Boise State at San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Boise State +275 (bet $100 to win $275) | San Diego State -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Boise State +7.5 (-105) | San Diego State -7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 135.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Boise State at San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 72, Boise State 67
Moneyline
Not enough return on what is a Bronco lean. AVOID.
Against the spread
Boise State is 11-6 ATS in conference play and 3-1 against the number after an MWC loss (per Statfox.com). The Broncos are 4-2-1 ATS over their last 7 games against the Aztecs.
BSU was blown out by 20 (72-52) in its last visit to Viejas Arena (Feb. 3, 2023), but the Broncos played close games against the Aztecs across 3 trips in 2021-22. In this season’s Jan. 20 game, Boise State did prevail by 1, but it led by 9 at the 2-minute mark.
SDSU is coming off 3 straight games against lesser foes and a dodgy loss at UNLV. With Boise State being a strong perimeter defensive team and an elite one on the defensive glass, look for the visiting 5 to stay close in a low-scoring affair.
TAKE BOISE STATE +7.5 (-105).
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Over/Under
The Over is 8-4 in Boise’s last 12 games.
Both teams have slower-than-average pace numbers, but the Broncos have sped things up a tad lately. Expect a lot of visits to the charity stripe.
The series has cashed on the Under in 7 straight games, but look for things to swing the other way Friday.
BET OVER 135.5 (-110).
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