The No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (10-1, 6-1 Mountain West) host the Boise State Broncos (7-4, 5-2) in a conference clash Friday. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET at Dignity Health Sports Park. Below, we look at the Boise State vs. San Diego State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Boise State is on a four-game winning streak, including a 37-0 beatdown of the New Mexico Lobos Saturday. The Broncos have the best points-per-game differential in the conference with an average score of 30.4-18.3 on the year.
Boise State is 7-4 against the spread (ATS) and 3-8 Over/Under (O/U) with the 62nd-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
San Diego has won three straight games with the latest being 28-20 victory at the UNLV Rebels last Friday. The Aztecs defense leads the Mountain West in points per game and yards per play allowed. San Diego State is 5-5-1 ATS and 5-6 O/U with the 105th-toughest schedule, according to Sagarin.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Boise State at San Diego State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Boise State -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | San Diego State +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Boise State -2.5 (-120) | San Diego State +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Boise State at San Diego State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 20, Boise State 17
Money line
PASS because I only “lean” to the Aztecs getting points and don’t have enough confidence in betting them at +120 straight up.
Furthermore, I’d wait until closer to kickoff to get a better price on either San Diego State’s money line or spread because Boise State is the more popular side, according to Pregame.com.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5 (-105) since more than 90% of the cash is on Boise State (according to Pregame.com).
All the pro-Boise State money has steamed the Broncos up from 2-point underdogs on the look-ahead line to the current price.
Also, San Diego State has higher predicted points added (PPA), yards per play and havoc rate differentials than Boise State.
Since this is priced as a coin-flip game, I “LEAN” to SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5 (-105) as a fade of the lopsided betting market and because the Aztecs have better efficiency.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 44.5 (-110) for 1 unit because both teams are better on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive.
San Diego State ranks fourth in defensive success rate and 99th in offensive success rate, while Boise State ranks 30th in defensive success rate and 75th in offensive success rate.
The Under has cashed in six consecutive Boise State games and these teams have a combined 10-16 O/U record in conference play since the beginning of last season.
Finally, roughly two-thirds of the action is on the Over but this total hasn’t budged off the opener. This “line freeze” suggests that the oddsmakers are confident in their total and haven’t been shaken by all the pro-Over money.
I want to be on the same side as the sportsbooks since they generally win and that side appears to be the UNDER 44.5 (-110). This is my favorite bet in this contest.
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