Surprisingly, the Green Bay Packers are still one of the top teams in the league in third-down defense. However, they will face their toughest test to date when they take on a talented Buffalo Bills offense this Sunday night.
No offense has been better on third down this year than the Bills. Much of that is a credit to quarterback Josh Allen, who has been lights out when facing third down this season. Per The Football Database, Allen has thrown for 560 yards while completing 66 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 133.3. He has also added 60 rushing yards after finishing first in third-down rushing in 2021.
Allen’s ability to extend drives has helped make him a sure-fire MVP candidate this season. And he is about to face a team trending in the wrong direction when it comes to getting opponents off the field on third down.
During their three-game losing streak, the Packers’ third down defense hasn’t been as sharp. After allowing just 24 percent of third downs to be converted through the first four weeks, the New York Giants were successful on six of their 11 third down attempts in week 5.
Everything seemed to return to normal against the New York Jets, who were 1-11 on third down the following week, but then Green Bay allowed the Washington Commanders to convert a season-high seven third downs in a 23-21 loss. The Packers’ third down defense conversion rate rose to almost 37 percent during that three-game stretch.
”We’ve been pretty damn good on third down all year long,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said Thursday.
On the surface, Barry is right. Through the first half of 2022, third down defense has seemingly been Green Bay’s calling card, but it may require a deeper look. After the Giants game, The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak wrote that the Packers faced favorable distances on third down and allowed so many first downs on first and second down, they actually faced the second-lowest number of third downs in the league (they are now ninth in total third downs faced). Therefore, fewer opportunities has helped keep their conversion rate low.
Meanwhile, the Bills are in a similar boat when it comes to third-down offense. Their total amount of third down attempts is the third lowest in the NFL this season. However, that can also be attributed to their success on first and second down. Only 26 percent of their first downs have come on third down.
So, which third down unit is the mirage, Green Bay’s defense or Buffalo’s offense?
The answer will most likely be the Packers, who are 10.5-point underdogs as they travel to face the Bills’ high powered offense. Regardless of what down it is, Green Bay’s defense better play at a high level if they hope to pull off an upset against a legit Super Bowl contender.
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