While the bar sits pretty low after last year’s one-win campaign, Colorado is expected to be the most improved Power Five team in college football, according to Bill Connelly’s final preseason SP+ rankings (subscription required).
Connelly’s projections have the Buffs improving by a whopping 15 points per game, well ahead of Miami (+12.7), Texas A&M (+8.9), USC (+8.7) and North Carolina (+8.1).
The SP+ rankings are based on three primary components, per Connelly:
As covered in previous pieces, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don’t have coming back?
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking
Without many returning players, that last question is more than likely what’s fueling the favorable projection for Colorado. The list of new Buffs is a long one that includes Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, Alton McCaskill IV, Jimmy Horn Jr. and many, many others.
Connelly recently appeared on ESPN and spoke about Colorado’s expected improvement under first-year head coach Deion Sanders.
“If Colorado doesn’t improve more than anyone else, it’ll be a pretty big shock,” Connelly said. “You see it with my SP+ projections. They are supposed to improve by more than two touchdowns overall.”
Bill Connely’s SP+ projections have the Buffs as the most-improved team in the country by a significant margin 🦬
(Via @espn) pic.twitter.com/eJQsTmq9dG
— DNVR Buffs (@DNVR_Buffs) August 20, 2023
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