It is something a lot of college basketball fans aren’t prepared for each year, but it keeps happening, and it will probably continue to happen most years: At least one team from a Power Five conference will make the NCAA Tournament with a sub-.500 record in conference games.
Sometimes, a team makes the Big Dance despite being FOUR games under .500 in conference play. Oklahoma made the 2019 NCAA Tournament with a 7-11 regular-season record in the Big 12, plus a first-round loss to the last-place team in the conference that season, West Virginia. The Sooners were 7-12 in 19 Big 12 games, and they got in.
No, they didn’t go to Dayton as part of the First Four, either. Oklahoma got in rather comfortably if measured by seeding. The Sooners were a No. 9 seed, meaning they were more safely in the tournament than four No. 10 seeds and four No. 11 seeds (excluding automatic bid-holders).
Teams getting in with conference records four games below the break-even mark is not common, but it happens every now and then. Teams getting in with conference records which are two games under .500 is a lot more common. Two years ago, FIVE such teams existed: Syracuse in the ACC, Alabama in the SEC, Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12, and Arizona State in the Pac-12, all two games below .500 in their respective conferences.
This year, there is no better place for this kind of NCAA Tournament team to emerge than in the Big Ten.
Indiana, entering Monday, Feb. 3, is 5-6 in the Big Ten, but with wins over Florida State and Michigan State, the Hoosiers look fairly solid as long as they don’t implode. The same can be said for Ohio State and Michigan, which are both 4-6 but recently picked up valuable wins over Indiana (for the Buckeyes) and Rutgers (for the Wolverines).
The most interesting Big Ten case studies, though, might be Purdue and Minnesota. The Boilermakers and Golden Gophers are both 5-6 in league play entering Feb. 3, but are barely above .500 overall. It is true that having a truckload of losses doesn’t automatically eliminate a team from getting an at-large NCAA bid. In 2001, Georgia got in despite losing 14 games. In 2017, Vanderbilt got in despite losing 15 games. Can Purdue and/or Minnesota get in despite being 18-15 and 9-11 in the Big Ten? We’ll find out.
If you ignore the Boilermakers and Gophers, though, it is still very likely the Big Ten will get at least one NCAA Tournament team with a losing conference record. It is part of the modern-day reality of college basketball.