At the top of the Big Ten, Maryland is in control of the conference. If the Terrapins can handle upcoming games against Minnesota and Michigan State, they will win the conference’s regular-season championship. The Terps aside, though, the upper half of the Big Ten is jumbled. Penn State was becoming the second-best team in the league, but a home-court loss to Illinois cast fresh doubt on that particular claim. Right behind Penn State are several teams in a bunch. You try picking teams 3-7 in the Big Ten. I won’t dare attempt to order those five teams.
Entering play on Thursday, Feb. 20, the eighth-place team in the Big Ten is Michigan. In the lower half of the Big Ten — the teams in spots 8 through 14 — we are seeing a sorting-out process, unlike teams 2 through 7 in the upper half of the league.
More precisely, what we have seen over the past few weeks is a separation involving — on one end — Michigan and Ohio State, and — on the other end — Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota.
Michigan, playing without key cog Isaiah Livers, won at Rutgers on Wednesday night, dealing the Scarlet Knights their first home-court loss of the season. Michigan and Ohio State have both rebounded after January swoons. These teams both seemed likely to finish with a sub-.500 record in Big Ten play. Yet, their sharp upward turns — clear revivals relative to their worst sequences in 2020 — have raised the possibility that they will have winning Big Ten records when the 20-game conference season ends. Michigan is 8-7. Ohio State is 7-7 heading into Game 15 against Iowa on Thursday. Because both Michigan and OSU did so much good work in non-conference play, they are NCAA Tournament locks at this point. This is one part of the sorting-out process in the lower half of the Big Ten.
The other part of the process: Indiana and Purdue and especially Minnesota have fallen into trouble.
Indiana beat Minnesota on Wednesday night in Minneapolis, putting the Gophers’ NCAA hopes on life support. Minnesota won’t get in unless it beats Maryland and finds at least three other wins in these final weeks. Maryland itself won’t change the equation. Maryland plus a few other wins could still get the Gophers in… but chances are dwindling for Richard Pitino, who is staring at a missed NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in seven seasons in The Barn.
Purdue is very likely outside the NCAA Tournament right now at 14-13, despite several quality wins. Purdue can’t hope that a 17-16 record will be good enough for the Big Dance.
Indiana helped itself against Minnesota, but the Hoosiers still have some tough road games coming up, and they also host the Badgers in the regular-season finale. If Michigan and Ohio State have risen, IU, Purdue, and Minnesota have fallen off the pace.
The lower half of the Big Ten is where clarity has emerged in the conference. We will see if the next two weeks create a similar effect among teams 2 through 7 in the league.