The No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12) square off with the No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones (8-2, 8-1) in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we analyze the Oklahoma-Iowa State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Sooners are ranked No. 10 and the Cyclones No. 8 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:52 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Oklahoma -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Iowa State +180 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Against the spread/ATS: Oklahoma -6 (-110) | Iowa State +6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 58.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State: Three things to know
- Since losing to Iowa State 37-30 Oct. 3, Oklahoma has notched six straight wins (5-1 ATS), including an easy 27-14 win last week as a 23-point home favorite vs. Baylor.
- The Cyclones have a 5-game win streak heading into this title, along with three straight covers. Iowa State (-6) smacked around West Virginia 42-6 last week.
- Iowa State has covered all 5 meetings vs. Oklahoma since head coach Matt Campbell took over the program in 2016.
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Oklahoma vs. Iowa State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Iowa State 27, Oklahoma 24
Money line (ML)
Oklahoma is such a popular team and has a head coach in Lincoln Riley so acclaimed that he can pretty much decide his own salary, that the value is inherently on the dog. The Sooners enter with a four-game win streak in the Big 12 title game.
Iowa State’s Campbell is no slouch either as his name has been rumored for open NFL gigs. When you start combing the web for nuggets on these teams, you realize that they are pretty even.
According to Football Outsiders, Oklahoma is 11th in offensive FEI ratings and Iowa State is 12th. Surprisingly, the Cyclones have the higher rated defense—16th in defensive FEI vs. the Sooners’ 22nd ranking.
The reason Oklahoma is laying such a big number on a neutral field is because of its popularity, not its production. Iowa State junior QB Brock Purdy is more seasoned and consistent than Oklahoma redshirt freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who has thrown one more pick and has a higher sack rate.
We are going to “LEAN” IOWA STATE (+180) for a half-unit and hit the spread harder.
Against the spread (ATS)
The case for betting IOWA STATE +6 (-110) was essentially made in the section above.
We are bucking the neutral site trends (Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 title games and Iowa State is 0-5 ATS at neutral sites) and following the head-to-head trend of the Cyclones covering five straight vs. the Sooners.
Bottom line: TAKE IOWA STATE +6 (-110) for 2 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
Call it a hunch, but I think these defenses are going to play better than the offenses. The total has been moved from a 60.5-point opener down to the current price despite 85% of the action being on the Over (according to Pregame.com).
First, that line movement is puzzling and, second, we are getting some value with the Under because the Over has cashed in four straight Oklahoma-Iowa State games. I wouldn’t bet it hard, but I definitely “LEAN” UNDER 58.5 (-115).
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