With a single tweet, ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski conceded defeat in a battle waged long before he even realized there was one.
The tweet: “As the Orlando Magic move closer to getting on the clock, Duke’s Paolo Banchero is now looming as a frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, sources tell ESPN.”
To the casual observer, his words were merely an update to a previous report based on new intel. To the betting community, they were a tremor in the bedrock of ground they once thought to be reliable.
Despite apparent sharp action moving Banchero’s odds to be drafted No. 1 from a very distant third-shortest late last week to favorite by the morning of the draft, Wojnarowski reported Auburn’s Jabari Smith as the “increasingly firm” top choice. Not stopping there, his report projected the top three picks, including Banchero to the Houston Rockets at No. 3.
As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
Sportsbooks reacted accordingly, as Smith’s new +110 odds were dropped to -10000 after the tweet.
Thus, one of the biggest fissures in the public’s trust was soon to be born — one way or another. Normally, I would have advised people to follow the money trail. People aren’t betting so much to move Banchero’s odds from +440 to -210 in less than a day — down from +2000 just last week — without knowing something the rest of us don’t. However, Wojnarowski’s word has been as bond as any in this arena. I trusted him so much as to declare the draft spoiled. Boy, was I wrong.
Just moments before the draft was set to start, Woj started to get conflicting information.
The Magic have kept their final decision tight, but Banchero has emerged as a significant possibility to be drafted No. 1 overall, sources said. https://t.co/Vi3iPSMAsG
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
As the Orlando Magic move closer to getting on the clock, Duke's Paolo Banchero is now looming as a frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, sources tell ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
His last-minute reversal will reverberate in the betting world for weeks, months and maybe years to come. How will sportsbooks react to reliable reporting that contradicts the betting action? How will the public? Will high-profile reporters keep their information closer to the vest in those scenarios? And does the industry have a wider insider problem that needs to be addressed? Is there really anything that can be done about it?
My one prediction is that books will more often consider removing odds altogether in those scenarios, as we saw a few do Thursday. After the wild rollercoaster ride that was the draft’s first few picks, we may get more answers soon.