Every NFL team will rely on at least two, and usually three, wide receivers each game, so logging one of the best eight performances allowed by a secondary is a significant feat. There were 2,207 instances of a wide receiver catching at least one pass in a game. That averages out with each secondary defending around 69 wide receivers each year. So, a Top-8 performance against a defense puts the receiver in the top 12% of receivers that they defended. Being the top performer versus a secondary for the year is being the best of the 69 wideouts they would have covered over 17 games.
Below will show how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best wideouts from each opponent.
The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.
See Also: Better than average
Quarterbacks | Running backs | Tight ends
Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how effective wideouts were when schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other wideouts that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2023 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.
There were only four wideouts who logged a Top-8 performance against a defense in most of their games. Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua have more than eight such games last year. Those are also at the top of the stats last year. Some players that show up well in this measurement over their season stats are Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens and Tank Dell. Those who come off worse in this measurement than their stats rank are DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman.
A Top-4 performance is impressive and only six players managed to post at least five of them. Keenan Allen and Mike Evans both had four monster games against specific defenses.
Of the 32 instances of a defense giving up the most fantasy points to an opposing wideout, eight wideouts managed at least two. That’s up form last year when only three receivers managed the trick and were Justin Jefferson (6), Davante Adams (4), and Cooper Kupp (2). Only Adams repeated this year though injuries impacted Adams and Jefferson.
Keenan Allen was a slight surprise, but benefitted from the Chargers losing Mike Williams which boosted his targe share significantly. For a rookie, Nacua remained in elite company in these metrics.