Given the proliferation of committee backfields, each NFL defense usually faces two or three running backs each game. Turning in one of the best eight games allowed by a defense is an elite performance.
Below shows how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best running back from each opponent.
The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.
Better than average:
Quarterbacks |Wide receivers | Tight ends
Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a running back was when schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other backs that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2023 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.
The position declined in perceived value for NFL teams but they still crank out plenty of fantasy-relevant stats each week and a top player offers consistency that rivals a player that is still taken very highly in fantasy drafts.
But the Top-5 in this metric last year were Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones – none of them repeating for 2023. It shows the volatility in the position and how those monster performances rise and fall dramatically the following year. On a winning fantasy team, you need difference-makers who can blow up in multiple games.
This highlights what a surprise that Breece Hall, Kyren Williams and Rachaad White were. And how this is a position where youth is a very good thing. It also shows what a disappointment Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor were though all three are still hot properties in fantasy drafts this summer.
This is fascinating. The only running backs that managed to log more than one top game against a defense were led by Christian McCaffrey – no surprise. But the other four were all in the second year of their career.
Yes indeed. Youth be served in the backfields of the current NFL.