A season ago, six NFL teams won at least 12 games. That marked the most since 2011. But which of these teams are most likely to miss the 2020 NFL playoffs? Below, we make our NFL picks and best bets.
NFL playoffs betting trends
Based on past trends there’s a likelihood for more regression within this elite group. Consider the 20 NFL seasons from 1999-2018:
- During those two decades, 91 teams finished a season with at least 12 wins. Of that contingent, 40 teams (44%) went on to miss out on the playoffs the ensuing year and 23 (25.3%) wound up with sub-.500 records.
- A 12-win team has gone on to miss the postseason the following campaign in 19 of the previous 20 seasons, with 2011 serving as the exception.
- At least two dozen-win squads have followed up with a postseason-less season in each of the last four years. In 2019, there were three as the Chicago Bears and the two Los Angeles teams, the Chargers and Rams, watched the playoffs at home.
Looking to place a bet on 2020 NFL futures? Get some action at BetMGM. Bet Now!
Will these elite NFL teams regress in 2019?
This season, though, could slow the 12-win regression trend as an extra team in each conference – for a total of 14 in all – has been added to the postseason field.
Still, even with more playoff teams, history says there’s a strong likelihood two of the following six 12-win teams from 2019 will miss the postseason.
The 2019 elite: Baltimore Ravens (14-2), Green Bay Packers (13-3), New Orleans Saints (13-3), San Francisco 49ers (13-3), Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) and New England Patriots (12-4).
So which of the 2019 standouts should we expect to tumble? Here are a few quick thoughts on how to capitalize on this trend.
How to bet the NFL’s best teams from 2019
NFL betting odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, Sept. 3, at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Ravens: Some regression is certainly expected from QB Lamar Jackson and Co. after they set the franchise record for wins last season. Of the previous 12 teams to win 14 or more games since 2000, all of them aside from the 2003-04 Patriots (14-2 each season) won at least one fewer game the following season with an average decrease of 3.7 wins. We’ll roll with that average and take a small shot at the UNDER 11.5 wins (-115).
- Packers: From an abnormally low point differential (plus-63) for a 13-3 team to a plus-12 turnover differential to a typically unsustainable 6-1 record in one-score games, all the signs are there for regression on the tundra. Go with the NO (+125) on the Pack making the playoffs in 2020.
- Saints: New Orleans has posted back-to-back 13-win seasons and captured three straight division titles for the first time in franchise history. Expect some decline with QB Drew Brees not getting any younger and consider a small wager on the Saints finishing with 9-12 wins (-358).
- 49ers: The Niners jumped all the way from four wins in 2018 to 13-3 and a Super Bowl berth last season. That almost always signifies a fall the following year, but stick with YES (-358) on San Francisco making the playoffs in 2020.
- Chiefs: The Chiefs weathered an early injury to QB Patrick Mahomes and double-digit deficits in all three of their postseason games to win last year’s Super Bowl. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs are even better in 2020. Go with KC winning 13-16 games at an enticing +150.
- Patriots: New England qualified for the playoffs in 17 of the 19 seasons Tom Brady started at QB from 2001-19, but Brady is gone and so is the Pats’ mojo with a ton of departed defensive talent as well. If there’s any time to bet against Bill Belichick, it’s now. Take NO (+200) on the Pats making the 2020 NFL playoffs.
Get some action on 2020 NFL futures bets by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]