Best NFL underdog picks and predictions for Week 16

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In Week 15, five underdogs covered the spread in their games. Four won their games outright, with only the New Orleans Saints covering the spread in a loss.

As for our best underdog picks, only the LA Rams (+125) came through for us in Week 15, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs at the San Francisco 49ers 12-6 in the Thursday night game. Our other picks, the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins didn’t cover. The Giants were 17-point home underdogs in a 35-14 setback to the Baltimore Ravens and the Dolphins were 2.5-point ‘dogs in a 20-12 loss at the Houston Texans.

Overall, we are 23-21-1 with our weekly underdogs picks this season. Let’s see what we can do in Week 16.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds, and tab the best NFL Week 16 underdog bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL underdog predictions: Week 16

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:25 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

GIANTS +8.5 (-110) at Falcons – 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Atlanta Falcons (7-7) have lost 4 out of their last 5 games and looked bad in a 15-9 win at the Las Vegas Raiders Monday night. Heading into Week 16, Atlanta made the decision to bench QB Kirk Cousins to give QB Michael Penix Jr., the eighth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, his first NFL start.

The Giants (2-12) have lost 9 straight games, but 5 of the last 7 defeats have been by 8 points or less. The 2 losses in that span that were by more than 8 points were to teams currently in position to make the playoffs (Baltimore and Tampa Bay).

Meanwhile, the Falcons have allowed 20 or more points in 11 of their last 13 games.

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Eagles at COMMANDERS +3.5 (-115) – 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) are rolling having won 10 games in a row. Plus, they’ve beaten the Washington Commanders (9-5) in the last 3 head-to-head meetings and have won at Washington the last 3 times they’ve played there.

However, after a 3-game skid in Weeks 10-12, Washington has won its last 2 games and has not allowed an opponent to score more than 19 points in those victories. They handled the visiting Dallas Cowboys 42-19 in Week 13 and, following a bye, they won at New Orleans 20-19 last week.

Philly’s defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in 6 straight games, but divisional games are often wild, so expect a neck-and-neck contest as these NFC East rivals are both battling for playoff seeding.

SAINTS +14.5 (-120) at Packers – Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC / ESPN)

The Green Bay Packers (10-4) went on the road and blew out the Seattle Seahawks 30-13 in the Week 15 Sunday night game, but the Saints (5-9) have been plucky.

New Orleans has won 3 of its last 5 games and have not lost by more than a touchdown in their last 3 defeats. The Saints have allowed only 17.6 points per game over their last 6 outings. The 2 losses in the last 5 games were against the Commanders (20-19) and Rams (21-14), both currently set to make the postseason.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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