NFL underdogs displayed some real bite in Week 5, covering the point spread in nine of 14 games and winning six of those contests outright.
We took advantage here for our first winning week of the season, covering with the Carolina Panthers as straight-up winners against the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings, who came up a point short as a touchdown underdog in a Sunday Night Football thriller against the Seattle Seahawks. We swung and missed with the Washington Football Team, who were getting 7.5 points at home against the Los Angeles Rams, but couldn’t get it done with their third quarterback (veteran Alex Smith) of the season forced to play most of the game in a 30-10 loss.
In all, that gives us a 4-11 against the spread record on the season.
NFL underdog best bets: Week 6
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 (-110)
We don’t have much statistical evidence on our side with Philly an uninspiring 1-3-1 straight up and 1-4 ATS, but the Eagles have played better than those numbers the past few weeks, upending the San Francisco 49ers as a TD-plus road underdog and giving the undefeated cross-state rival Pittsburgh Steelers all they wanted last week in a closer-than-it-appears 38-29 loss.
Outside of their 34-20 spanking at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3, QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS, winning each of those other four contests by at least 14 points.
The Eagles have a solid run defense, though, allowing 3.9 yards per carry, and QB Carson Wentz and the offense look like they’re getting things together after a brutal, injury-filled start.
As long as there’s at least some good news on Philly’s Week 6 injury report, bank on the EAGLES +7.5 (-110) keeping it within 7 points in a loss or winning outright.
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Denver Broncos +9.5 (-110) at New England Patriots
After being pushed back twice due to the Patriots’ mini-COVID-19 flare-up, this contest looks like it will finally be played after much schedule juggling involving no fewer than six other teams, six additional games and six teams’ bye weeks.
The delay, though, should benefit both the Pats and Broncos with previously injured/ill quarterbacks Cam Newton and Drew Lock now likely to play.
If Newton does suit up, no one will be picking against Pats head coach Bill Belichick, who’s had two weeks to stew over a Week 4 loss in Kansas City, but that also means there will be solid value backing a 3-1 ATS Denver squad, especially if the spread climbs into double digits.
Take the BRONCOS +9.5 (-110) with the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (-106)
The Cowboys (2-3) and the winless New York Jets are the only teams with 0-5 ATS records on the season, and now Dallas is without injured QB Dak Prescott.
Veteran Andy Dalton, though, might be the league’s best backup, and look for the Cowboys to rally around their new starting QB in a Monday night home game.
Arizona is 3-2 overall and ATS but the wins have come against an uninspiring trio of foes in the decimated 49ers, Washington and the Jets. Arizona also will now be without top pass rusher Chandler Jones the rest of the way.
Expect plenty of points – as is the custom with Dallas games averaging a whopping 68.6 so far – but look for Dalton and COWBOYS +2.5 (-106) to win outright with a late score and notch the mini upset.
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