We’ve made it to Thanksgiving weekend in NFL 2020, and we’ve encountered nothing but steep peaks and deep valleys along the way here in underdog corner.
The season began with a 2-10 against the spread start over the opening four weeks. The next five weeks, though, all were winning ones as we were riding high with a 12-3 record over that span. The two weeks since have been a plunge back down to the depths of the valley with back-to-back 0-3 weekends.
That leaves us at 14-19 entering Week 12, and we’re desperately seeking a path back up toward .500.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 12
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110)
The Silver & Black have been one of 2020’s ATS success stories with a 7-3 record against the number and have covered the spread in four straight games, including last Sunday night’s 35-31 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Raiders obviously invested much in that division game, only to lose on a TD in the final minute, making this interconference road date across the country a prime spot for a letdown.
The Falcons are 3-7 straight up and 4-6 ATS and are coming off a poor effort in a 24-9 loss to the rival New Orleans Saints in which QB Matt Ryan was sacked a season-high eight times.
The Raiders, though, are highly unlikely of executing the same blueprint as they have totaled all of 11 sacks in 10 games this season and are surrendering the league’s fifth-most passing yards per game at 273.6.
Take Ryan, the Falcons and the points.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)
QB Tom Brady and the Bucs fell to 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS in primetime Monday night with a 27-24 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Rams.
While Brady vs. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes certainly has prime name value, it will be a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff in Tampa Sunday, so that’s one plus for the Bucs.
Another is Brady’s 5-1 ATS record over the last two seasons, including 3-0 this year, in the week following a loss. Brady’s Bucs and New England Patriots teams have covered by an average of 9.6 points in those games.
The 9-1 Chiefs have won five straight, but have failed to cover in the last two and are in a less-than-ideal situational spot on the road for the second straight week following the hard-fought win over the rival Raiders.
Put some bucks on the Bucs to cover, and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
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Chicago Bears +8.5 (-110) at Green Bay Packers
The Pack have owned this NFC North series over the last decade, winning 17 of the 20 matchups outright and going 14-6 ATS.
Green Bay (7-3) enters the contest with a two-game lead over 5-5 Chicago in the division, but the Packers have struggled against the number of late, covering in only two of their last six contests after a 4-0 ATS start.
QB Aaron Rodgers and Co. have also had trouble with the most formidable defenses on their schedule so far, losing outright to the Bucs and Indianapolis Colts, and we figure the Bears’ sixth-ranked scoring defense (20.9 points allowed per game) should be able to stay within a touchdown Sunday night on the tundra.
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Also see:
- Falcons’ Koe on track to make Pro Bowl (Falcons Wire)
- Arians compares Mahomes to Brady, Luck (Bucs Wire)
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