We had been riding a midseason surge here in underdog corner with five straight winning weeks (12-3 record against the point spread), but this is the NFL wagering world where runs like that are simply unsustainable over the long haul.
We would’ve preferred a softer 1-2 landing, but it was a 0-3 outing in Week 10 with our trio of underdog selections, the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears, all losing outright and failing to cover the spread.
That drops our season record here back below .500 at 14-16.
Let’s get back on track quickly.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 11
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Falcons +5 (-110) at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons were left for dead after a 0-5 start (1-4 ATS) which resulted in head coach Dan Quinn being fired, but Atlanta is quietly surging under interim coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons are 3-1 straight up and against the spread over their last four games, losing only to the Detroit Lions (23-22) on a last-play touchdown in Week 7.
Now, the Falcons are coming off a bye and are facing a 7-2 Saints team riding a six-game winning streak but is suddenly without injured QB Drew Brees for at least the next couple of weeks.
Jameis Winston is now at the controls and that can hardly inspire wagering confidence, especially with a Saints squad that’s only 4-5 ATS on the season, including 3-5 as a favorite.
The Saints should find a way to a seventh straight win, but look for the rival Falcons to keep it close and get the cover.
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Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (-121) at Cleveland Browns
The SU records — Cleveland is 6-3 and Philly is 3-5-1 — are somewhat deceiving. The Eagles are leading their division (albeit one of the worst divisions witnessed in recent memory) while the Browns are in third place in the rugged AFC North. They’re currently dealing with some extra COVID-19 concerns as well.
From an ATS perspective, both teams are among the league’s bottom six with matching 3-6 records against the number.
As betting favorites, though, the Browns are 2-4 ATS while the Eagles are 2-1 ATS as underdogs, and with the latter getting the field goal plus the coveted hook, we’ll definitely side with Philly here.
Green Bay Packers +2 (-110) at Indianapolis Colts
With five of the 14 Week 11 matchups pitting teams with winning records, this inter-conference contest between division leaders is a tad overlooked.
Both the Packers (6-3 ATS) and Colts (5-4) are above. 500 against the number, but Indy is in the tougher spot with this non-AFC game falling right in the middle of its two home-and-home matchups against the AFC South co-leading Tennessee Titans.
The Colts have the better defense, but the Packers have the much better late-30s quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, and he’s who we’re banking on to deliver an outright, minor-upset win for visiting Green Bay.
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Get some action on these NFL games or others by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Eagles WR Jalen Reagor focused on his own ‘journey’ (Eagles Wire)
- GM Brian Gutekunst: Packers want cap flexibility come March (Packers Wire)
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