The New York Mets (49-43) and Cincinnati Reds (49-46) finish up a three-game series at Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 6-8 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 103 2/3 IP spanning 20 starts.
Stroman has been solid throughout the season but has lost four straight decisions. Since returning from a minor hip issue he has made four starts and allowed 10 ER across 18 IP with 11 strikeouts.
RHP Jeff Hoffman, who has been sidelined since late May due to shoulder soreness, is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 3-4 with a 4.61 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 across 41 IP over 10 starts.
Hoffman’s skills have been pretty shaky, but he has allowed 1 or zero earned runs in four of his five home starts this season. Over five rehab appearances, he totaled 18 1/3 IP and allowed 7 ER and 5 homers while posting a 25/5 K/BB.
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Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Mets 6, Reds 5
Money line (ML)
Hoffman is coming off an extended absence, and even at full strength, his control issues make him a risky proposition.
Stroman’s performance has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but the Mets still come into this game with the clear pitching edge. Back the METS (-150).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Hoffman’s ratios aren’t very strong and the ERA estimators indicate he has been fortunate they’re not even worse. The Mets should have success against him in his first start back from the injured list.
However, Stroman hasn’t quite looked like himself lately and hasn’t gone more than five innings since June 17. The Reds are tied for third in the majors in runs per game at home (5.48) and should keep it close, so PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Mets have gone 3-2 against the O/U over their last five games, while the Reds are 4-1 against the number. Both teams are 4-1 against the O/U over their last five games against right-handed starters.
Neither starting pitcher is a great bet to shut down the opposition, so look for enough offense to push this total OVER 10.5 (-105).
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