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The New York Mets were projected to win 92.5 games last season and had the 2nd-shortest odds to win it all at +700. Instead, they became sellers at the trade deadline, finished 75-87 and failed to make the playoffs.
However, New York has made strides in the offseason, adding CF Harrison Bader, signing LHP Sean Manaea, agreeing to a deal with DH J.D. Martinez, and snatching up RHP Luis Severino. Let’s analyze the New York Mets’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
New York Mets World Series odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, March 26 at 5:56 a.m. ET.
Odds: +4500 (bet $100 to win $4,500)
New York is tied with the San Francisco Giants for the 15th-shortest odds to win it all.
The favorites are the Los Angeles Dodgers (+320), Atlanta Braves (+450), Houston Astros (+700) and New York Yankees (+900), while the biggest long shots are the Colorado Rockies (+50000), Oakland Athletics (+50000), Chicago White Sox (+25000) and Washington Nationals (+25000).
At +4500, New York has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 2.17%.
The Mets have improved in the winter, but even if RHP Kodai Senga has a Cy Young caliber season after returning from his shoulder injury, it’s very unlikely that they would be able to compete with the likes of the Dodgers, Braves and Astros.
PASS.
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New York Mets playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +180 | No -235
The NL East is a tough division. The Mets making the playoffs would likely rely on the Philadelphia Phillies having a down season. This market has a 5.54% hold, compared to a 4.55% hold when both sides are -110. You’d be better off taking the Under on the Phillies’ season win total (89.5) if you like the Mets to make the playoffs.
PASS.
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New York Mets win total
Over/Under: 81.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Will the Mets be an above-.500 team?
They finished with just 75 wins last season after trading away RHP Max Scherzer and RHP Justin Verlander. So are the additions of Bader, Manaea, Martinez and Severino worth 7 wins? I don’t believe so. However, this number was 83.5 back in January, so I’m afraid most of the value has already been bet out of this line.
LEAN UNDER 81.5 (-115).
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To win NL East Division
- Atlanta Braves -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Philadelphia Phillies +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- New York Mets +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300)
- Miami Marlins +3500 (bet $100 to win $3,500)
- Washington Nationals +12000 (bet $100 to win $12,000)
New York’s implied probability of winning the NL East is 7.14%.
While the Mets have a lineup that features C Francisco Álvarez, 1B Pete Alonso, SS Francisco Lindor, Martinez, and LF Brandon Nimmo, it likely won’t be enough to keep pace with the Braves, who are projected to be the 2nd-best team in MLB.
Even if the Braves were to have a down season, the Mets would have to finish with a better record than the Phillies, who are also rolling out a more talented roster than New York.
PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +2400 (bet $100 to win $2,400)
The Mets are tied with the San Diego Padres for the 8th-shortest odds to win the National League.
New York had a much more impressive roster on Opening Day last season, and it still didn’t even manage to make the playoffs, let alone make an appearance in the NLCS.
The organization is resetting in hopes of building a winner for the future, so if Senga can continue to improve and the Mets somehow make the playoffs, that should be enough to make New York fans happy this season.
You’d be better off playing 1 of the favorites in this market. The Dodgers (+165) have the shortest odds, followed by the Braves (+250) and Phillies (+800).
PASS.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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