In 2022, the Cincinnati Reds were outscored by over a run per game (5.03 to 4.00) en route to logging a 62-100 record. The franchise’s 1st 100-loss season since 1982 came in what marked the beginning of a rebuild in Cincy.
Free-agent acquisitions OF/1B Wil Myers and IF Kevin Newman don’t figure to move the needle much on getting run production on par with what pitching and defense is expected to yield. Much youth will be on display as the Reds’ rebuild continues. Let’s analyze the Cincinnati Reds‘ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
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Cincinnati Reds World Series odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, March 23 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Odds: +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)
Cincinnati has the 4th-longest odds to win the Fall Classic. The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000. The Washington Nationals are next at +30000. The Houston Astros (+600) are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750)
At +20000 , the Reds have an implied probability of winning the World Series of 0.5% or 200/1 fractional odds.
The 0.5% chance overestimates what these Reds are very likely to do this season. That is something quite similar to what they did a year ago. PASS.
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Cincinnati Reds playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +1500 | No -5000
PASS: Figure “No” as being closer to the correct price here, but the tag is not worth our time.
Cincinnati Reds win total
Over/Under: 64.5 (O: -135 | U: +105)
RHP Luis Castillo is gone (Seattle Mariners), but the Reds do have a couple top-shelf starters in RHP Hunter Greene and LHP Nick Lodolo. The back end of the rotation will be a Double-A-to-MLB continuum of multiple arms auditioning for the future. Because this is a rebuild. And speaking of rebuilding …
The bullpen logged a 4.72 ERA last year. That was tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 28th in the league. Only the Colorado Rockies (4.85 ERA) were worse, and from an analytics standpoint, a case can be made that the Reds were the worst of that woeful triumvirate.
This is by no means a ringing endorsement for this club jumping into contender-ship, but the 2022 Reds got off to an awful 3-22 start. The also had sub-.400 months in June and August but they did pepper in a couple over-.500 months (May, July). Their overall runs-scoring profile made them a couple games unlucky. Getting closer to 67-70 wins this year would not be a surprise. That’s going to take some good health with Greene and Lodolo and a couple key bats.
Its also going to take holding one’s nose to participate in a 30-cent line. Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 64.5 (-135). Better yet, see if that tag might fall to -125 and go in with closer to a full unit.
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To win NL Central Division
- St. Louis Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Milwaukee Brewers +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Chicago Cubs +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Cincinnati Reds +6000 (bet $100 to win $6,000)
- Pittsburgh Pirates +7000 (bet $100 to win $7,000)
Cincinnati’s implied probability of winning the NL Central is 1.64% or 60/1 fractional odds. More return would be needed to take this on: PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +9000 (bet $100 to win $9,000)
AVOID. The implied probability here is 1.1% (90-to-1). But we’re just not talking about a mid-70s-win team that can get hot or get lucky and make serious waves.
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