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With five weeks left in the NFL season and with the playoff standings so tight, every game is critical for every team still chasing a postseason berth.
Some games will have even more meaning than others, and that’s where NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund stepped in and named the six most-impactful games left in 2021.
One of those games takes place at Paul Brown Stadium this Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals host the San Francisco 49ers, the closest matchup for Frelund after running 300,000 simulations:
The Bengals are a different story. They currently make the playoffs in 50.9 percent of simulations, and a win increases that likelihood to 56.9 percent. However, if they lose to the 49ers, their playoff probability plummets to 32.8 percent. The Bengals need to win Sunday to set up a pivotal Week 16 matchup with the Ravens (8-4) that will most likely decide the division and whether the Bengals earn a playoff berth. (Baltimore forecasts to make the postseason even with a loss in Week 16.) What’s particularly interesting about this matchup is the chain reaction it could have on the Chargers’ playoff chances: If the Bengals beat the 49ers on Sunday and win their next two games (at Broncos, vs. Ravens), they’ll potentially be responsible for booting the Bolts from the playoffs. How? Because in that scenario, Cincy would be the front-runner to win the AFC North, kicking Baltimore down to a wild-card spot. Because the Ravens have the head-to-head tie-breaker vs. the Chargers, L.A. could end up being the odd team out.
This game has been almost a coin flip for many people all week and both teams are hanging on to a playoff spot entering Week 14.
Other games on the list include Chiefs-Chargers (Week 15), Eagles-Washington (Weeks 15 and 17), Patriots-Colts (Week 15) and Bills-Patriots (Week 16).
In that same article, Frelund also adds a betting note regarding the Bengals, saying she likes RB Joe Mixon to rush for over 76.5 yards against the 49ers.
Considering that the Niners’ front is their strength, and the fact that Joe Burrow was under the most pressure he’s seen this season just last week, it’s likely the Bengals will recommit to the run in order to keep Burrow from unfavorable situations. Next Gen Stats show Mixon has earned 36 first downs on rushes outside the tackles, which is the most in the NFL. He’s also gained 4.6 yards per rush against stacked boxes, ranking third-best.
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