In the first half of the AFC Championship game, Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of 21 passes for 220 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 149.9. Had the Bengals not stopped Kansas City’s potential touchdown drive at the Cincinnati one-yard line with time expired in the first half, this could be an even bigger blowout than the 21-10 score would indicate.
What a stop by the @Bengals defense to end the half! #NFLPlayoffs #RuleTheJungle
📺: #CINvsKC on CBS
📱: https://t.co/dKNUFkxkbU pic.twitter.com/Rxtmq9cnBt— NFL (@NFL) January 30, 2022
One reason for this? The Chiefs are absolutely demolishing Cincinnati’s defense with pre-snap motion, and it hasn’t been subtle. From the NFL Network’s Scott Hanson:
I’m watching the game w our excellent @NextGenStats crew.
They tell me Chiefs have run shifts/motion on 25 of 26 plays.NFL avg is a little over 50% #AndyReid
— Scott Hanson (@ScottHanson) January 30, 2022
Mahomes’ third touchdown pass was a nice example of how this offense sets opposing defenses on their heels with motion. Mecole Hardman moved from left to right pre-snap, and that was that.
First Hill. Then Kelce. Now Hardman.
Three first half TDs for @PatrickMahomes! #NFLPlayoffs
📺: #CINvsKC on CBS
📱: https://t.co/dKNUFkxkbU pic.twitter.com/6ezrwdyHag— NFL (@NFL) January 30, 2022
There are many reasons for this. First, the Chiefs are brilliant at scheming openings with motion — they know how to displace defenders with it, and it also gives Mahomes pre-snap indicators.
There’s also the fact that the Bengals have been really, really bad against motion this season.
Including the postseason coming into this game, per Sports Info Solutions, Mahomes had by far the most dropbacks with pre-snap motion with 524 — Tom Brady ranks second with 421, so it isn’t even close. And with pre-snap motion, Mahomes has completed 332 of 469 passes for 3,575 yards, 1,325 air yards, 32 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.7.
Here’s where the matchup does not favor the Bengals at all. Including the postseason, Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 192 completions on 272 attempts for 2,108 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent QBR of 104.8.
When these two teams faced off in Week 17, and the Bengals eked out a 34-31 win, Mahomes completed 17 of 22 passes with pre-snap motion for 122 yards, and both of his touchdowns. The only hope the Bengals have here is that in the second half of that game, Mahomes completed five of six passes with motion for just 24 yards. The Bengals moved to more really deep two-deep coverage in the second half of that game; perhaps that’s what we’ll see from here on out.
What we do know is that if the Bengals don’t figure this out, their season is decidedly over.