It was just three offseasons ago when Trey Lance entered the NFL as a walking highlight reel—a quarterback dripping with potential and hype. Development now stalled, Lance is stuck on the Dallas Cowboys’ bench as the 2024 season winds down; reputation bruised and financial prospects bleak.
The $22.4 million fifth-year team option from his rookie deal? Forget it.
Even this year’s $5.3 million base salary has been labeled an overpayment. From a value-theory perspective, one has to wonder: Is Lance depreciating due to his own shortcomings, or has institutional neglect fostered his fall?
Trey Lance: A Gamble Gone Wrong or Neglected Potential?
Drafted third overall in 2021, Lance was a gamble from the start. Critics warned of his raw mechanics and limited experience at North Dakota State, but NFL analysts couldn’t resist his rocket arm and dual-threat potential.
Zack Hicks hit the nail on the head; “If he is rushed into action with a weak supporting cast, it could kill his NFL career. If he ends up in a good situation that takes the time to develop him and work with him and has a proper plan in place… he could be outstanding.”
San Francisco seemed to have such a plan in place—until injuries and the Brock Purdy Cinderella story shoved Lance aside. The trade to Dallas was supposed to be a fresh start. Instead, it’s been more of a slow fade.
Despite Mike McCarthy’s sermon about the importance of game reps and building chemistry with receiving targets for a quarterback’s development, Lance’s opportunities have been virtually nonexistent.
With the Cowboys limping out of playoff contention, Dak Prescott sidelined for the season, and Cooper Rush serving as a serviceable-but-meh QB1, the stars seemed aligned for Lance to finally get some meaningful snaps. Instead, what Lance got was the equivalent of crumbs—and stale ones at that.
Take the Texans loss, for example. Mike McCarthy admitted after the game that he regretted not giving Lance even a single series. Regret is nice, but it didn’t change the trend: Lance sits while the Cowboys fumble opportunities to develop him.
Week 17 against Philadelphia was the tipping point. No playoff hopes. Cooper Rush struggling. An offense producing nothing but turnovers. It was the perfect moment to give Lance a real shot. Instead, he got three garbage-time snaps in a game that was long lost. Fans had tuned out before he ever hit the field, and who could blame them?
McCarthy expressed regret, once again, claiming he considered inserting Lance one series earlier. That still would’ve been too little, too late.
Besides, the real question isn’t about Sunday’s game but the recurring refusal to give Lance the reps he so desperately needs to develop.
A Bleak Free Agency Ahead
It’s not just about this week or this season. The lack of playtime has far-reaching consequences. Lance is now seen as a “bust” not because of what he’s done but because of what he hasn’t been allowed to do.
Sure, entering the draft with so little college experience was a gamble on his part. And yes, his five interceptions in his only preseason start with the Cowboys didn’t help his case.
But when NFL teams bring in a raw talent like Lance with no real plan for development, the responsibility shifts. One could say the system failed him, but the existence of that system in the NFL is looking more and more like a myth.
What will this mean for the soon-to-be free agent? The promise of professional opportunity and financial gain that likely lured him to declaring for the draft in the first place is slipping away.
As he heads toward unrestricted free agency in March, Lance’s story becomes a cautionary tale of how easy it is for NFL players to lose value and how little it matters whose fault it is when that happens.
There’s one last chance for Lance to get meaningful reps and remind NFL fans—and front offices—that he still has potential: Sunday’s season finale against the Washington Commanders.
When asked in Sunday night’s press conference who would lead the offense, Mike McCarthy played coy. For Lance’s sake, let’s hope his decision doesn’t lead to yet another postgame presser with words of regret.