Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are very confident in the champion to retain, listing Freire -900 and Carvalho +600 as of this writing.
Although I disagree with a betting line this wide (both for this matchup and in general given the nature of MMA), I can understand why money keeps coming in on Freire. The Bellator double champ has defeated multiple generations of fighters in and out of the featherweight division, as he appears to be operating in prime form.
That said, Freire is not beyond being stung when engaging in firefights, and you can count on his current counterpart bringing the chaos. Should Carvalho catch Freire with a shot he does not see coming or, worse, hurts him to the body off of one of his patent liver kicks, then do not be surprised to see Carvalho – who has the skills to do so – follow up for the finish.
As for me, it’s difficult to ultimately not side with Freire to capitalize on the counters that Carvalho’s stylings will likely give him. Aggression is a potent two-way street in MMA – one that Freire has successfully navigated much more than his 24-year-old foe. For that reason, I’ll pick Freire to force a stoppage via strikes from a rear mount late into the third round.
Prediction: Freire inside the distance