Point of interest: Odds and opinions
As I predicted in the breakdown video attached, Caldwell is your slight favorite at -120, while money steadily sprinkles on Borics, who is the underdog at +100 as of this writing.
I believe that Caldwell is the deserved favorite due to his wrestling ability, but I have a hard time siding with him here. You could honestly argue that each man is the stylistic antithesis of the other, but I suspect that this styles clash may favor Borics in a five-round affair.
It is of my belief that there’s a quiet trend in MMA in regards to the long-hailed effectiveness of wrestlers, which is to say that if a wrestler – no matter their credential or camp – does not either develop quality striking or submission grappling in ways that can ensure them victory, then they will eventually be figured out at the higher levels.
Essentially, the metagame in mixed martial arts is continually growing underneath our noses, as you no longer have to be an outlier like Georges St-Pierre to effectively wrestle or understand wrestling in MMA.
Now, it is not uncommon for even mid-to-lower tier fighters to demonstrate a level of technical efficacy to their get-up games, which means that the offensive parties usually have to dish out much more energy in order to impose the rides and mat returns that are necessary for them to maintain position. Factor in a five-round fight and judging criteria that’s supposedly shifting in favor of damage over control, and I find it harder to be as confident in the proverbial wrestler on paper.
Don’t get me wrong: Caldwell is more than just a wrestler and has skills to finish fights, I just believe that the former champ will have to show those skills early and often to give himself his best chances for victory.
Borics, who showed some important patience and composure in his last three fights, is a multi-layered threat that seems to find most of his finishes off of takedown attempts or the subsequent scrambles (finishing fights via front-chokes, flying knees and rear-naked-chokes off of said scrambling scenarios). With that in mind, the pick is for Borics to survive the initial takedown waves early, eventually breaking Caldwell down and finding his back late in the third round for a submission win.