The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will do battle for control of the top seed in the NFC on Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
To preview Sunday’s matchup, Packers Wire sat down with managing editor Kyle Madson of Niners Wire to break down Kyle Shanahan’s team with five questions:
Packers Wire: The 49ers have a lengthy injury list, with several important players looking like game-time decisions. Who would be the biggest absences?
Niners Wire: It’s hard to imagine the 49ers winning Sunday if George Kittle is out again. He’s such a vital presence in everything they do offensively. He’s a sensational playmaker as a pass catcher, a dominant run blocker, and instrumental in some of the deception head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to work into his game plan. Their offense was discernibly worse with Kittle out, and the chances they can keep up with Aaron Rodgers without him are slim. They can overcome a lot of injuries – Kittle isn’t one of them.
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Packers Wire: The 49ers are second in scoring defense and third in takeaways this season. What has made Robert Saleh’s group so tough and disruptive?
Niners Wire: Their pass rush has keyed their defensive resurgence. Nick Bosa is a budding star, Dee Ford is having a productive year, and their dominance on the edge has allowed DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead to be disruptive in the middle. All four of them have 5.0 or more sacks. Armstead has 8.0 to lead the team. His previous career-high was 3.0 through his first four years. Their athleticism in the second level and in the secondary helps a lot, but it all starts up front. They make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable, and it makes the rest of the defense better.
Packers Wire: However, opponents have scored 25 or more points in three straight games against the 49ers. Is there a blueprint developing for attacking the defense?
Niners Wire: Teams have had success running the ball against San Francisco’s Wide-9 front, especially in sub-packages, which is what the 49ers are primarily in. Seattle and Arizona both had success stressing the 49ers horizontally and hitting them with inside runs, screens and quick passes. That eliminates some of the effectiveness of their pass rush, and as a result of that, the rest of their defense. Seattle did post 27 points, but their three touchdown drives in regulation totaled just 87 yards thanks to San Francisco turnovers, so their score was a touch inflated. Still, mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray who stretch the edge have been the primary reason the 49ers’ defense has slipped up the last three weeks.
Packers Wire: Jimmy Garoppolo has five games with a passer rating over 100.00 and five under 80.0. Why has he been so streaky?
Niners Wire: Turnovers combined with a lack of opportunity, mostly. Early in the year, San Francisco was passing the ball less often than any team in the league so one turnover was a big blemish on his stat line. Getting away from stats and looking at the eye test though, Garoppolo is susceptible to mistakes under pressure, and sometimes tries to fit throws into tight windows when he should just take a sack or throw the ball away. He’ll also wait too long to hit underneath throws and allow the trailing defenders to undercut the pass. That specifically has happened several times. Conversely, because he’s willing to try those tight-window throws, he also comes up with some pretty remarkable completions. It’s just life with Garoppolo under center. He’s going to run hot and cold, the 49ers have just gotten lucky enough that he bounces back well from mistakes and hasn’t run cold for too long at any point this season.
Packers Wire: The 49ers win if …? And what’s one thing the Packers need to do to beat the 49ers on the road?
Niners Wire: The 49ers win if Garoppolo doesn’t give the ball away. They should’ve beaten the Seahawks despite playing without George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders, and the only reason Seattle was in that game was because Garoppolo kept giving the ball away. They also need to get their run game going. Their offense is at its best when Garoppolo is throwing 25 to 30 times, and they’re running the ball well. That allows head coach Kyle Shanahan to maximize the deception that makes his entire offense effective. They can get away with not running against the Cardinals. They won’t be able to do that against the Packers. One thing Green Bay has to do is keep running the ball well. They’ve eclipsed the 115-yard mark in four of their last six games. That’ll be the key to beating San Francisco. Running keeps their offense off the field, and minimizes how effective their pass rush can be. It also forces their aggressive linebacking corps to get downhill, making them susceptible to play-action looks. If the Packers go over 115 yards on the ground, they should pull out a win at Levi’s Stadium.
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