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The NFL’s three-game slate for Thanksgiving is headlined by the New Orleans Saints’ road trip to play the Atlanta Falcons; despite Atlanta’s sorry record (the Falcons are 3-8 on the year so far, and a combined 21-24 in the years since they blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI) this game has big implications for both teams. A Falcons loss could signal the end for embattled head coach Dan Quinn; it would also allow the Saints to clinch their third straight NFC South title and punch their ticket for the playoffs.

So with so much on the line, we reached out to Matt Urben over at Falcons Wire to get the best-informed perspective. Here’s what he had to say in our Q&A:

1. The Falcons handed out a beat down to the Saints and Panthers in back to back weeks, but Jameis Winston and the Bucs beat them in a boat race last Sunday. Have the Falcons found some winning strategies coming out of the bye or are they simply executing better?

It’s been a little bit of both, honestly. A lot was made of Dan Quinn relinquishing defensive coordinator duties to Jeff Ulbrich and Raheem Morris, but it comes down to the players executing and playing with confidence. The Falcons also moved Ricardo Allen to strong safety during the bye week and the coaching staff has credited him with improving the defensive communication by getting to play more in the box.

2. Julio Jones has missed two days of practice, as has starting tight end Austin Hooper. What’s the plan if neither of Matt Ryan’s top weapons can play Thursday?

Austin Hooper is almost certainly out, but Julio Jones is still a mystery. Missing practice or being limited early in the week has been pretty common for Jones, but he was noticeably in pain while playing through a shoulder injury in Week 12.Calvin Ridley has stepped up with Hooper out and has built great chemistry with Matt Ryan. Also, second-year WR Russell Gage had a career-best eight catches for 76 yards last week.

3. How is the new defensive play calling approach working? It gave the Saints trouble with six sacks against Drew Brees, but are they still getting pressure often?

The Falcons had just seven total sacks entering that Week 10 upset, and combined for 11 over the next two weeks. Desmond Trufant’s return has helped in the secondary, but the team we saw play in Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers looked a lot like the one fans grew accustomed to seeing during those first eight weeks. Atlanta did not record a sack, but did intercept Jameis Winston twice. It wasn’t a complete drop off in terms of pressure, the team just came up short of making plays when they had the chance to.

4. What is the biggest possible difference Saints fans will pick up on in this rematch of the game they saw just a few weeks ago?

Something that may have been overlooked in that Week 10 game was just how well Atlanta’s offensive line played against a very good Saints defense. The Falcons kept things going with another stellar performance up front in Week 11.The Bucs brought them back to earth on Sunday, however, and they could struggle to protect Ryan after getting exposed last week. I expect Sean Payton to have a better game-plan this time, and to attack some of the same areas he saw Bruce Arians, go after in the Falcons secondary.

5. Alright, who’s winning this thing? What is your final score prediction?

This is one of those games that while my head says the Saints will win, my gut tells me the Falcons may get up for this one the way they did three weeks ago when these teams met. I’ll go with my head, though, and say New Orleans wins, 27-23.

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