The Indianapolis Colts (5-2) are set to host the Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for a crucial Week 9 matchup.
Before the game, we caught up with Matthew Stevens of Ravens Wire to get the scoop on Indy’s opponent. From Lamar Jackson’s regression to the replacement options for Marlon Humphrey, there is a great deal of info here on the Week 9 matchup.
Here, we go behind enemy lines to ask Ravens Wire five questions about the Week 9 matchup:
1. Lamar Jackson is an elite talent but regression has hit him hard this season. What has been the reason for this?
Matthew Stevens: It’s a mixture of a bunch of things really. The offensive line is still trying to find anywhere close to a replacement for right guard Marshal Yanda, who retired in the offseason. The rushing attack hasn’t looked quite as deadly as last year prior to last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s also not like the Ravens have a wealth of talent at wide receiver or even tight end either. But where those things don’t do Jackson any favors, he hasn’t helped himself out either.
I believe the root of Jackson’s issues really stem from him trying to do too much to prove his critics wrong. People said he isn’t a good deep passer and struggles to throw outside the numbers. So, Jackson came out this season practically forcing those throws at times, as well as forcing the ball to his top-two targets in Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. It didn’t take long for defenses to notice those things and gameplan against it, while Jackson didn’t deviate from those areas. Jackson also made a concerted effort to not take off running early in the season, even when all his targets were locked up and there were clear rushing lanes to take advantage of. If and when Jackson ever returns to “normal,” it’ll be because he’s gotten out of his own head and is playing smarter football to take advantage of what the defense gives him.
2. The Colts have the eighth-highest pressure rate in the league and the Ravens will be without Ronnie Stanley and Tyre Phillips. What can the Ravens do to keep Jackson protected?
MS: The Ravens have been no stranger to pressure on Jackson this season but have a few ways to alleviate it. The top priority is establishing the run and letting the offensive line manhandle the guys in front of them. They found success last week against a very aggressive and capable Steelers defense doing exactly that. Jackson is also a different breed of quarterback, and we’ve seen defenses maybe back off being as aggressive in order to try and contain him instead. Indianapolis could try and be a little more aggressive to bring him down, but that opens up lanes for him to run as well. If the Colts simply try to contain him and shrink the pocket in on him, the Ravens should begin to roll Jackson out to free him up and potentially have him one-on-one with a pass rusher — a battle Jackson wins often enough. When Jackson does go back to throw, he’s got to get the ball out of his hands quickly. That likely means more quick slants, some WR screens, and play action to buy another second in the pocket.
But it’s worth pointing out that we have no clue how this offensive line will work without Stanley and Phillips. This is the game that will determine how much trouble Jackson and the offense truly are with two offensive linemen down.
3. Who will have to step up in the absence of CB Marlon Humphrey?
MS: Jimmy Smith looks to be that guy for Baltimore. Brought back on a one-year deal this offseason, Smith came to training camp in great shape. Seriously, this is the best physical shape I think I’ve ever seen Smith in to start a season and it’s paying off on the field. Smith has been played all over the field for the Ravens this season but has settled back in at cornerback following a bunch of injuries at the position. Regardless of where he’s played, he’s been effective. He’s lost a step from his prime but he’s still shutting down opposing receivers on the regular. He’s been targeted 25 times, allowing 12 completions (48%) for 72 yards, no touchdowns, and a 54.6 passer rating.
While Smith isn’t at Humphrey’s level anymore, he’s still not a guy I would throw at a bunch. Instead, I’d target the middle of the field with the slot receiver, tight ends, and running backs. Smith will likely be vacating that area to play in Humphrey’s spot and with so many injuries already, Baltimore will be putting a practice squad corner into the nickel role. With rookie linebacker Patrick Queen missing practice on the Reserve/COVID-19 list (he could return in time for Sunday’s game), there are bound to be a bunch of blown assignments and lackluster play in the middle of the field to take advantage of.
4. Which player has been the biggest surprise through seven games in 2020?
MS: I’d say Lamar Jackson and for the wrong reasons. While I was first in line to caution people against expecting Jackson to relive his MVP performance from last year, I didn’t expect so many problems for the third-year quarterback. Ignoring the comparison of stats from year to year, Jackson just hasn’t looked like himself. As I mentioned in the first question, there are a bunch of different reasons for it, including some that are out of his control. Jackson doesn’t even need to get back to that MVP-caliber of play to be deadly but he definitely needs to become more consistent if the Ravens are going to regularly win games like they did last season. Until that happens, I think he’s the most shocking performer this season for Baltimore.
On the positive side, I’d have to hand safety DeShon Elliott a lot of props. Elliott had gone on injured reserve the last two seasons. This year, he had to quickly replace a Pro Bowl player in Earl Thomas following his abrupt exit from the team right before the start of the season. That gave tons of reasons to be concerned but Elliott has come through with flying colors. He’s been healthy (knock on wood) and playing at a high level. While maybe not as adept as Thomas in coverage, you won’t see Elliott getting stiff-armed down the sideline or jogging out a play. In fact, you’re far more likely to see Elliott leave his feet to lay a massive hit on a ball carrier like a heat-seeking missile. That’s exactly what the Ravens were hoping to get out of him this season, making him one of their top surprise performers.
5. Final score, prediction?
MS: This is so hard for Baltimore. With how they’ve played so far this season, this game likely comes down to a three-point difference in the final minutes. If the Ravens can finally find some consistency and don’t hurt themselves with turnovers and penalties, they could easily blow out most teams in the NFL. Which version of the team will we see in Week 9?
I’ll lean in favor of Baltimore just because of their smothering defense working wonders against older quarterbacks like Philip Rivers who might not be as able to get away from the pressure or get guys open very quickly. But until the Ravens’ offense stops trying to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory, I can’t give them a big win. Ravens 27 – Colts 20
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