The Chicago Bears are 4-1 and fresh off an upset victory over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccanneers. It only makes sense, then, that they’d rise up NFL Power Rankings, right?
Wrong.
At least, not according to Sports Illustrated, who ranked the Bears No. 19 entering Week 6, behind the Buccaneers and even the Minnesota Vikings (1-4).
“If you were to take the Bears’ performance through five weeks and simulate it 10 million times, you’d have more instances of the franchise suspending operations due to a Mothra attack on the city of Chicago than the Bears sitting at 4-1,” wrote SI’s Gary Gramling. “They’re -104 in net yardage and -1 in turnover differential. But here we are! Sitting at 4-1 and going forward with a top-five defense has them squarely in the postseason mix, because the NFL uses win-loss record rather than October power rankings standing to determine its playoff field.”
Here’s the beauty with the NFL, and the problem with Gramling’s analysis: teams like the Bears only play the game — the one game — that’s in front of them. They don’t simulate those games ’10 million times.’
The Bears have to keep stacking wins. They’ve stacked four so far, even if they were improbable or required major and unlikely comebacks.
It also seems like SI’s power rankings are doing everything possible to explain why teams aren’t fitting their preseason narrative. Check out this explanation for the Vikings’ position at No. 16:
“Sometimes you put together the perfect game plan, execute it well, make all the right situational decisions… and you come up short because your guy slipped and picked the wrong hole on fourth-and-inches, while their guy plucked a rainbow up the sideline despite being well-covered on fourth-and-10. Or because sometimes the football gods just decide they’d like to point and laugh at you. Sorry, Mike Zimmer.”
Now we’re blaming the football gods?
NFL pundits will continue doubting the Bears until they achieve a signature win. And that’s good news for Chicago. Doubt is fuel to an athlete’s fire. The less seriously the Bears are taken, the more wins they’re likely to secure.