The Baltimore Orioles (9-7) and Philadelphia Phillies (5-8) wrap up a three-game series on their Thursday getaway day, with first pitch at Philly’s Citizens Bank Park scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Orioles-Mets’ MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Baltimore won the first two contests in Philadelphia, including Wednesday’s 5-4 win.
Weather alert: A thunderstorm is in Thursday’s forecast for Philly. Check here for the latest.
Orioles at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Thomas Eshelman at RHP Jake Arrieta
Eshelman holds a 3.68 ERA in two appearances (one start) this year.
- The owner of a 6.50 ERA in 36 big-league innings last year has struck out just three batters in 7 1/3 frames this season. So, he’s been lucky. He allowed a whopping 12 homers in that short sample in 2019.
On the other hand, Arrieta (2.45 ERA, 10:1 K:BB) has turned back the clock to his Cy Young-caliber form that he rattled off from his Chicago Cubs days.
- The third-year Phillie holds a solid 3.51 ERA in 29 starts at CBP.
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Orioles at Phillies: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Orioles
- RP Hunter Harvey (arm) out
- SP John Means (COVID-19) out
- OF Trey Mancini (malignant tumor removed) likely out for season
Phillies
- RP Seranthony Dominguez (elbow) out
- RP Reggie McClain (shoulder) out
- RP David Robertson (elbow) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Orioles at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:13 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Phillies 6, Orioles 3
Through Tuesday, the Phillies ranked seventh with a .344 wOBA at home, and among players in that split, OF Bryce Harper ranked fifth at .490.
Moneyline (ML)
- Orioles (+165)
- Phillies (-189)
The Phillies are the obvious favorites, and the books make bettors give up a lot of ceiling for this ticket. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Orioles +1.5 (-125)
- Phillies -1.5 (+105)
The run line, however, offers a double-up opportunity for the home favorite with the much more experienced starting pitcher toeing the rubber. BET PHILLIES.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Phillies’ run line would return a profit of $10.50.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
I won’t try to give the O’s a third win in this series, despite their recent road success. I’ll give the nod to Arrieta shutting them down just enough that this total doesn’t excite me. PASS.
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