The Baltimore Orioles (3-2) and New York Yankees (3-2) close out their AL East weekday series Wednesday at 6:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP John Means is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. In 2020, he went 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 10 starts. Means was sharp in his 2021 debut, allowing only 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings while striking out 5 against the Boston Red Sox April 2.
RHP Jameson Taillon toes the slab for the first time since May 1, 2019. Taillon missed all of 2020 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He owns a 3.67 ERA over 82 career starts.
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Orioles at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (-120) | Yankees -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Yankees 4, Orioles 3
Money line (ML)
New York struggled against southpaws a year ago, and Means was certainly sharp in his season debut. Taillon is a big question mark, although he did fan 14 batters over 8 1/3 IP in spring training.
Albeit in a small sample, he does have a history of getting off to good starts in April (3.68 ERA in 17 March/April starts), and Wednesday, Taillon is supported by the best arms in the Yankees bullpen. Wins by scores of 7-0 and 7-2 Monday and Tuesday did not stress the back end of New York’s relief corps.
The lines here figure to bracket the true odds on both sides. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There isn’t a ton to like about this play either, but the most likable side of the four (the ML and run-line wagers) is BALTIMORE +1.5 (-120).
It’s an inexpensive play on Means as a solid breakout candidate for 2021 and an acknowledgment of the Yanks’ potential struggles against left-handers and the conservative approach with Taillon.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Yankees are looking to close out a three-game sweep of the Orioles, a team that hasn’t done much offensively outside of a six-double, 11-run game at Boston Sunday.
Means is an extreme fly-baller. Normally that’s not a calling card of successful pitchers at Yankee Stadium, but the Wednesday evening weather report calls for low humidity and a pitcher’s breeze in from center field.
BACK THE UNDER 9 (+100).
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